As of mid-December, 2025 has seen 309 earthquakes recorded across the UK so far. The most active regions included Perthshire and the western Highlands in Scotland, Lancashire and Yorkshire in England, and southern parts of Wales.

Whilst many of these seismic events were too subtle to be felt by members of the public, the network of 80 monitoring stations across the UK operated by the 51ÁÔÆæ (BGS) has been recording the movement beneath our feet to an exceptional level of accuracy.

51ÁÔÆæ is the national body responsible for recording earthquakes and our annual snapshot of UK earthquake data, published today, shows 2025 has proven above average for earthquakes across the UK.

Thirty-four of the earthquakes occurred near Loch Lyon in Perth and Kinross between October and December. This includes the two largest onshore earthquakes, which occurred just hours apart on 20 October. A magnitude 3.7 quake was followed by one of magnitude 3.6, with local residents reporting the experience as though ‘a large lorry had crashed’ or ‘like an underground subway under my house’; another stated that ‘the house shook and all the windows rattled’. BGS received 198 ‘felt reports’ following the event, some more than 60 km from the epicentre. A magnitude 3.2 earthquake in Lancashire in early December was even more widely felt, with nearly 700 felt reports submitted.

In total, BGS received 1320 reports from members of the public who felt earthquakes this year. This vital ‘citizen science’ allows us to collect important contextual data around each event, including effects at the surface such as noise or levels of shaking.

The data shows that earthquakes occurred in many parts of Great Britain over the past 12 months, with numerous events in Scotland, England and Wales that were each significant enough to be widely felt by many nearby.

Whilst thankfully major earthquakes of devasting magnitude are extremely unlikely, the country on average experienced an earthquake almost once a day this year.

It is a reminder that small earthquakes happen all the time and it remains of critical importance that they are studied to help us understand the possible impact of the rare large earthquakes on major energy and infrastructure projects around the country.

Dr Brian Baptie, BGS seismologist

Although the magnitude of many of these earthquakes is too low to be felt by humans, the largest seismic events observed in the UK, with magnitudes in the range of 5 to 6, can pose a threat. This research, which is in part publicly funded through UK Research and Innovation, helps improve understanding of seismic risk around the country and is crucial information for the Government, industry and regulators, in order to mitigate the threat to buildings and infrastructure.

Dr Baptie says it makes sense that Perth and Kinross tops the list of seismic activity across 2025.  

The west of Scotland is one of more active parts of the UK. Some of this activity can be attributed to well-known geological faults like the Great Glen Fault and the Highland Boundary Fault. By contrast, north-east Scotland experiences very few earthquakes.

Dr Brian Baptie, BGS seismologist

In addition to naturally occurring events, induced seismicity (such as sonic booms) that are caused by human activity are also recorded in the data. These readings are kept as part of a BGS archive of continuous ground-motion recordings, dating back over several decades.

The Richter scale, which is used to accurately record and compare earthquakes, is a logarithmic scale and not linear. Each order of magnitude is 32 times more intensive than the last one. In other words, a magnitude 2 earthquake is 32 times more intense than one of magnitude 1 and a magnitude 3 is almost 1000 times greater. As you progress up through the scale, vast amounts of energy are being unleashed under the ground, which is why some earthquakes can have such a devastating impact.

Although larger earthquakes in our region are rare, they do occur. Great Britain and the surrounding areas typically experience a magnitude 4 event every three to four years, a magnitude 5 event every few decades with the most recent being in , and a magnitude 6 every few hundred years. An event of this scale was last recorded in the . Although infrequent, the fact that such large events can happen means it is vital that earthquakes are studied over the long term so that an accurate picture of the risk around the country can be stablished.

Further information, including a , is available on the BGS website.

Current methods used to forecast aftershocks — secondary quakes that can prove more deadly than initial earthquakes — can take several hours or days. New machine learning models have now been developed that can forecast where and how many aftershocks will take place following an earthquake in close to real-time.

Researchers from BGS, the University of Edinburgh and the University of Padua created the artificial intelligence (AI)-driven forecasting tools. They were developed by training machine learning models on earthquake data from California, New Zealand, Italy, Japan and Greece, all parts of the world that regularly experience earthquakes.

The rapid forecasts produced by AI-powered tools could help authorities with decision making about public safety measures and resource allocation in disaster-hit areas. The team analysed the AI models’ ability to produce forecasts of how many aftershocks will take place within the 24 hours following earthquakes of magnitude 4 or higher. They compared the performance of their models with the most widely used forecasting system, known as the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, which is used operationally in Italy, New Zealand and the USA.

While both model types show similar performance at forecasting aftershock risk, the ETAS model took much longer to produce results. As it involves running a large number of simulations, the ETAS model can take up to several hours or days on a single mid-range computer.

By training the AI tools on records of past earthquakes from regions with different tectonic landscapes, researchers say their models could be used to forecast aftershock risk in most parts of the world that experience earthquakes.

The research, published in Earth, Planets and Space, was supported by the European Union Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie SPIN Innovative Training Network.

This study shows that machine learning models can produce aftershock forecasts within seconds, showing comparable quality to that of ETAS forecasts. Their speed and low computational cost offer major benefits for operational use: coupled with the near real-time development of machine learning-based, high-resolution earthquake catalogues, these models will enhance our ability to monitor and understand seismic crises as they evolve.

Foteini Dervisi, study leader, PhD student at BGS and the University of Edinburgh School of GeoSciences.

New data from BGS reveals that Oasis is the ‘most seismic’ act to have performed at Murrayfield Stadium over the last two decades, a fact that may come as little surprise to fans of a band as famous for its internal turbulence as its musical output.

Researchers have reviewed archived data from a nearby seismic monitoring station, roughly 4 km from the venue, to compare the earth-shaking impact of the biggest acts to perform in Scotland largest stadium. In terms of crowd energy, the Mancunian band performance in 2009 really does set them apart as the capital true ‘Shakermakers’.

Murrayfield Stadium most seismic concerts (2004 to 2024)

Whilst the music may have been the impetus, the energy detected by the national monitoring stations is not driven be the volume of the band or the crowd; it the movement of fans jumping and dancing in time to the music, with the height of the jumping and weight of the crowd also potential factors. It raises the tantalising possibility of comparing the response of a band fans to concerts in different decades and the ability for fans to show they can still ‘Go let it out’.

In 2009, seismic signals generated by Oasis fans were consistent with a crowd energy of 215 kW at its peak, enough to power around 30 of the scooters featured on the iconic ‘Be Here Now’ album cover.

Our network of sensors around the country is sensitive enough to pick up ground movement from a source miles away, which may not be detectable to humans, and precise enough to register exact timestamps for when the events occur.

The peak energy reading was recorded around 20:30 on that June evening back in 2009. That correlates to the time the band first took the stage and performed ‘Rock ‘N’ Roll Star’, which couldn’t be more fitting in terms of topping our seismic music chart!

Callum Harrison, BGS Seismologist.

The historical data is part of a BGS archive of continuous ground motion recordings from seismic sensors around the country, which dates back over several decades. Collectively, this information is used to carefully monitor the UK seismic activity, which experiences around 300 events each year. Although the magnitude of many of these earthquakes is too low to be felt by humans, some of the larger seismic events can pose a risk to buildings and infrastructure. Understanding this risk provides crucial information for scientists and decision makers on how to best mitigate this hazard.

In this instance, we are only looking back over 20 years; however, geological processes occur over vast time scales that can be difficult for humans to comprehend. Improving our understanding of historical earthquakes is an important part of BGS’s research in trying to understand and mitigate the seismic risk around the country.

Callum Harrison, BGS Seismologist.

As fans eagerly await the band return to the Scottish capital on 8 August 2025, the question now is whether the those in attendance still have the energy to rank amongst Edinburgh top Shakermakers.

On 29 July 2025, global monitoring systems detected a large earthquake offshore of the Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia, and widespread tsunami warnings were issued across the Pacific region. With a magnitude of 8.8, it was all too easy to think back to the 9.0 to 9.1 magnitude event that devastated Japan in 2011, or the 9.2 to 9.3 magnitude event on Boxing Day in 2004. Thankfully, on this occasion, the impact is believed to be relatively small by comparison.

However, the Kamchatka event did reveal impact of a different nature. Almost as soon as news broke of the earthquake, tsunami warnings were issued and millions of people were told to evacuate across locations at risk, 2 million in Japan alone. This was the result of two decades of research on hazard mitigation following the Boxing Day earthquake in 2004, which claimed the lives of more than 220 000 people in one of the largest disasters, in terms of loss of life, in modern history.

Immediately after the Indian Ocean event in 2004, BGS scientists participated in responsive marine research expeditions that resulted in increased knowledge of sea-bed deformation resulting from the earthquake. Longer-term responses resulted in major advances in understanding earthquake tsunami mechanisms, which have further contributed to disaster risk reduction efforts.

Most significant, in terms of public safety, has been the installation of improved tsunami warnings for coastal communities. Tsunami early warning systems (TEWS) are based on identifying earthquake magnitudes (usually larger than magnitude 7 to 8) that could result in hazardous tsunamis. The Indian Ocean tsunami took two hours to reach the coasts of India, Sri Lanka and Thailand, where around 80 000 people lost their lives. Many of them could potentially have been saved if there had been an operational TEWS in place.

In the wake of the catastrophic 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami, further advancements were made in our understanding of tsunami mechanisms, which ultimately led to improved mitigation measures around the world.

Our knowledge base today to plan for and respond to tsunamis is far beyond anything considered possible before the turn of the century.

Following the devastating events of 2004, research has allowed us to be more prepared than ever before to mitigate the threat of this formidable phenomenon. This was highlighted during the Kamchatka earthquake and subsequent tsunamis. TEWS were activated, which led to the evacuation of millions to safety and has ultimately led to a relatively minimal impact being reported.

Prof David Tappin, BGS marine geologist and leading tsunami expert.

Whilst warning systems for earthquake tsunamis are now effectively implemented for major events, there is still the major challenge of designing warning systems for other tsunami mechanisms, such as landslides and volcanic eruptions. Hopefully, with new approaches potentially available through applications such as artificial intelligence, these will become a reality.

As a state of emergency is declared on the Greek island of Santorini, seismologists are increasingly turning to artificial intelligence technology to provide high-resolution images of the ongoing seismic activity, in a bid to enhance short-term forecasting accuracy.

Since the start of the crisis, a team from BGS comprising Margarita Segou, Brian Baptie, Rajat Choudhary, Wayne Shelley and Foteini Dervisi, has been employing machine learning algorithms to detect ten times as many earthquakes as standard techniques, with over 20000 tremors accurately predicted in the Santorini area alone since 1 December 2024. This approach is allowing geologists to identify for the first time small magnitude earthquakes that were previously undetected using standard approaches.

51ÁÔÆæ Seismologist Margarita Segou, who is leading the development of the groundbreaking research, says it has revolutionised the way scientists can learn from seismic activity and predict patterns.

This machine learning technique results in far richer data feeding into short-term forecasts, which can allow experts to track the evolution of events and better advise emergency services and at-risk communities.

Dr Margarita Segou, BGS Seismologist.

These algorithms allowed researchers to first note increased seismic activity across the Santorini region on 26 January 2025. In comparison, standard detection schemes did not register the same increase until 31 January and only picked up around 2000 seismic events in the Santorini area; ten times less than the new approach has detected.

Dr Segou says it is the ability to combine different sources of information more quickly that is at the heart of the advancement.

Through strong international partnerships, we can reprocess past and present data through machine learning and gain a new and priceless insight into the seismic activity in Santorini in previous phases of unrest and its links to the volcanic system.

Dr Margarita Segou.

Santorini is located on the Hellenic volcanic arc at the convergence of the African plate and the Eurasian plate, at a complex tectonic boundary. Currently, seismic events around the island show that seismicity bursts occur almost twice a day, with the tremors lasting for one to two hours.

Dr Segou adds the data is revealing some unique features.

We have evidence that this is fluid-driven, swarm-type seismicity that comes in pulses. This is not unheard of in other volcanic regions; however, this time it is evolving on top of active faults that complicate the expression of seismicity.

It is easy to get a disconnected story when we just look at moderate magnitude seismic events. It is only when we investigate the smaller magnitude events that occur between that we learn of the hidden mechanisms that take place between the large earthquakes.

It is critical that we track whether those pulses become more frequent and how they migrate in space and depth. So far, the largest quake in this swarm has been a 5.2 magnitude.

Dr Margarita Segou.

Contact

For more information, please contact 51ÁÔÆæ press (bgspress@bgs.ac.uk) or call 07790 607 010.

Enhanced mapping of the UK Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) is being made available to the public for the first time, providing greater insight into the occurrence of earthquake hazard across an area of seabed that the country holds exclusive rights to, including those for energy production.

The updated modelling from BGS comes at a time when the UK is seeking to bolster its offshore renewable energy infrastructure and meet its net zero commitments.

These maps are the first new UK offshore seismic hazard maps for more than 20 years. Methodological and computational advances mean that we are able to better understand which areas hold the potential to be heavily impacted by seismic activity and how to model the uncertainty (what is still unknown or uncertain).

Offshore critical infrastructure, including windfarms and carbon capture and storage, are both essential for the transition to net zero, but it is also vital that we know what the hazard is so that high consequence structures can be designed appropriately to reduce risks to people and the environment.

Dr Ilaria Mosca, earthquake hazard researcher, BGS.

Earthquakes in the UK

The UK experiences between 200 to 300 earthquakes annually, with the largest earthquake ever recorded being a 6.1 magnitude earthquake that occurred in 1931 in the Dogger Bank area of the North Sea, about 100 km from the east coast of England. More recently, in 2022, a 5.2 magnitude earthquake in the northern part of the North Sea shut down operations at an offshore oil platform without causing significant damage.

The North Sea and the Irish Sea have a strategic role in supporting the UK decarbonisation and net zero carbon ambitions due to the increasing number of licensed carbon capture and storage (CCS) sites located there. The presence of historic seismicity near these offshore CCS sites emphasises the importance of robust estimates of the potential earthquake hazard to underpin the planning and design of this critical offshore infrastructure.

The seismic hazard maps

The seismic hazard shown in the maps is computed using a model that consists of two parts: one that characterises earthquake occurrence (where they occur and their frequency of occurrence) and another that describes the ground shaking that may result from potential future earthquakes. The model is based on historical and instrumental observations of earthquakes and their effects, and information and data relating to the tectonics and geology of the region under investigation.

These maps empower developers with the knowledge of the areas that have the greatest potential for key infrastructure, including CCS, to be built without the serious risk of damage caused by the ground shaking produced by future potential earthquakes, helping to ensure net zero can be achieved alongside the safety of those on and offshore.

Dr Ilaria Mosca.

Project partners and funding

The project was funded by the (IDRIC). The project partner was , an independent developer of low-carbon solutions for industrial emissions, including CO₂ storage and hydrogen. Storegga projects include the Acorn CCS, Cromarty and Speyside hydrogen projects in the UK, Trudvang CCS in Norway and Harvest Bend CCS in Louisiana.

More information

The products of this project are accessible through a .

Taylor Swift record-breaking concerts in Edinburgh have now been scientifically recognised as ‘ground shaking’, with earthquake readings being detected up to 6 km from the venue.

51ÁÔÆæ monitoring stations around Edinburgh recorded seismic activity generated by the concerts. Each of the three evenings followed a similar seismographic pattern, with ‘…Ready For It?’ ‘Cruel Summer’ and ‘champagne problems’ resulting in the most significant seismic activity each night.

Analysis of the seismograph data suggests that the most enthusiastic dancing occurred on the Friday night, although crowds on each night generated their own significant readings.

Whilst the events were detected by sensitive scientific instruments designed to identify even the most minute seismic activity many kilometres away, the vibrations generated by the concert were unlikely to have been felt by anyone other that those in the immediate vicinity.

Seismographic data summary

• The seismic activity from the concert was detected at two monitoring stations, the furthest of which was 6 km away at the BGS office in the Lyell Centre
• The activity was mainly generated by fans dancing in time to the music and reached its peak at 160 beats per minute (bpm) during ‘…Ready For It?’, where the crowd was transmitting approximately 80kW of power (equivalent to around 10 to16 car batteries)
• Based on the maximum amplitude of motion (the distance the ground moves), the Friday night event was the most energetic by a small margin, recording 23.4 nanometres (nm) of movement, versus 22.8 nm and 23.3 nm on the Saturday and Sunday respectively

51ÁÔÆæ is the national body responsible for recording earthquakes to inform the Government, public, industry and regulators, and allow for a greater understanding of earthquake risk and plan for future events.

It amazing that we’ve been able to measure the reaction of thousands of concert goers remotely through our data. The opportunity to explore a seismic activity created by a different kind of phenomenon has been a thrill.

Clearly Scotland reputation for providing some of the most enthusiastic audiences remains well intact!

Callum Harrison, BGS Seismologist.

51ÁÔÆæ is the UK’s national earthquake monitoring agency and operates a network of monitoring stations around the country. Every year, as many as 300 naturally occurring earthquakes are detected in the UK, but only around 30 are of a high enough magnitude to be felt by people. Induced seismic events, those caused by human activity such as sonic booms, are also recorded.

Further information, including a , is available on the BGS website.

*This article was updated on 13/6/24 to correct the energy comparison to car batteries.

Margarita Segou, a seismologist at BGS, has been a member of Geophysical Journal International (GJI) editorial board since 2019 and will begin her new role as editor-in-chief from 1 March 2024.

Margarita has conducted research in institutes and universities in the USA and Europe, and has worked at BGS for the past nine years. She is well known for her work in earthquake physics and the development of testable, physics-based forecasts in evolving seismic sequences.

Since January 2024, GJI has been fully open access, which enables everyone to have free, immediate, and unrestricted access to the high-quality research published within it. GJI’s mission is to promote the understanding of the Earth’s internal structure and physical properties, the processes operating in, on and around it, and its evolution. It is published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society and the Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft.

It with humility and enthusiasm that I assume the role of editor-in-chief of GJI, a journal of the Royal Astronomical Society. GJI is one of the most long-lived journals in earth sciences, with uninterrupted publication over 100 years, and I’m honoured to lead the editorial team at GJI in the open access era.

Margarita Segou, BGS Seismologist.