multi-hazards Archives - 51ΑΤΖζ /tag/multi-hazards/ World-leading geological solutions Wed, 25 Mar 2026 08:30:13 +0000 en-GB hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 /wp-content/uploads/2020/03/cropped-BGS-favicon-logo-32x32.png multi-hazards Archives - 51ΑΤΖζ /tag/multi-hazards/ 32 32 Perth and Kinross tops the UK earthquake activity charts for 2025 /news/perth-and-kinross-tops-the-uks-earthquake-activity-charts-for-2025/ Mon, 29 Dec 2025 08:32:13 +0000 /?p=121105 Seismologists at BGS have published data on the number of seismic events over the past 12 months with over 300 earthquakes recorded.

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As of mid-December, 2025 has seen 309 earthquakes recorded across the UK so far. The most active regions included Perthshire and the western Highlands in Scotland, Lancashire and Yorkshire in England, and southern parts of Wales.

Whilst many of these seismic events were too subtle to be felt by members of the public, the network of 80 monitoring stations across the UK operated by the 51ΑΤΖζ (BGS) has been recording the movement beneath our feet to an exceptional level of accuracy.

51ΑΤΖζ is the national body responsible for recording earthquakes and our annual snapshot of UK earthquake data, published today, shows 2025 has proven above average for earthquakes across the UK.

Thirty-four of the earthquakes occurred near Loch Lyon in Perth and Kinross between October and December. This includes the two largest onshore earthquakes, which occurred just hours apart on 20 October. A magnitude 3.7 quake was followed by one of magnitude 3.6, with local residents reporting the experience as though β€˜a large lorry had crashed’ or β€˜like an underground subway under my house’; another stated that β€˜the house shook and all the windows rattled’. BGS received 198 β€˜felt reports’ following the event, some more than 60 km from the epicentre. A magnitude 3.2 earthquake in Lancashire in early December was even more widely felt, with nearly 700 felt reports submitted.

In total, BGS received 1320 reports from members of the public who felt earthquakes this year. This vital β€˜citizen science’ allows us to collect important contextual data around each event, including effects at the surface such as noise or levels of shaking.

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The data shows that earthquakes occurred in many parts of Great Britain over the past 12 months, with numerous events in Scotland, England and Wales that were each significant enough to be widely felt by many nearby.

Whilst thankfully major earthquakes of devasting magnitude are extremely unlikely, the country on average experienced an earthquake almost once a day this year.

It is a reminder that small earthquakes happen all the time and it remains of critical importance that they are studied to help us understand the possible impact of the rare large earthquakes on major energy and infrastructure projects around the country.

Dr Brian Baptie, BGS seismologist

Although the magnitude of many of these earthquakes is too low to be felt by humans, the largest seismic events observed in the UK, with magnitudes in the range of 5 to 6, can pose a threat. This research, which is in part publicly funded through UK Research and Innovation, helps improve understanding of seismic risk around the country and is crucial information for the Government, industry and regulators, in order to mitigate the threat to buildings and infrastructure.

Dr Baptie says it makes sense that Perth and Kinross tops the list of seismic activity across 2025.  

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The west of Scotland is one of more active parts of the UK. Some of this activity can be attributed to well-known geological faults like the Great Glen Fault and the Highland Boundary Fault. By contrast, north-east Scotland experiences very few earthquakes.

Dr Brian Baptie, BGS seismologist

In addition to naturally occurring events, induced seismicity (such as sonic booms) that are caused by human activity are also recorded in the data. These readings are kept as part of a BGS archive of continuous ground-motion recordings, dating back over several decades.

The Richter scale, which is used to accurately record and compare earthquakes, is a logarithmic scale and not linear. Each order of magnitude is 32 times more intensive than the last one. In other words, a magnitude 2 earthquake is 32 times more intense than one of magnitude 1 and a magnitude 3 is almost 1000 times greater. As you progress up through the scale, vast amounts of energy are being unleashed under the ground, which is why some earthquakes can have such a devastating impact.

Although larger earthquakes in our region are rare, they do occur. Great Britain and the surrounding areas typically experience a magnitude 4 event every three to four years, a magnitude 5 event every few decades with the most recent being in , and a magnitude 6 every few hundred years. An event of this scale was last recorded in the . Although infrequent, the fact that such large events can happen means it is vital that earthquakes are studied over the long term so that an accurate picture of the risk around the country can be stablished.

Further information, including a , is available on the BGS website.

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New report sets pathway to reduce the impacts of geohazards in one of the world most hazard-prone nations /news/new-report-sets-pathway-to-reduce-the-impacts-of-geohazards-in-one-of-the-worlds-most-hazard-prone-nations/ Tue, 30 Sep 2025 08:43:27 +0000 /?p=119500 A new White Paper, co-developed by Indonesian and UK hazard experts, presents a strategic roadmap to significantly reduce the impacts of geological hazards in Indonesia.

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Indonesia is one of the world most hazard-prone nations and experiences over 2000 disasters annually. Natural hazard disasters in Indonesia are responsible for the loss of hundreds to thousands of lives each year and costs the national economy US$1 to US$3 billion[1], [2]. Population growth, increased urbanisation, embedded poverty and rising inequality mean these risks are rising.

Effective disaster risk reduction across the spectrum of geohazards, from landslides to tsunamis, depends on decisions grounded in the best available earth science. Yet significant knowledge gaps remain, particularly in understanding previous hazardous events, how they shape future risk, and how lessons from the past can best inform effective hazard-management strategies.

A new White Paper, co-developed by the 51ΑΤΖζ (BGS) and UK and Indonesian multi-disciplinary hazard experts, presents a strategic roadmap to advance geohazard science assessment and significantly reduce the impacts of geological hazards in the country by 2035.

The report, titled β€˜, is intended to benefit policymakers, funders, researchers and institutions that are committed to collaboratively reducing disaster risk in Indonesia.

The paper sets out five recommendations to support evidence-based resilient development in one of the world most hazard-prone nations:

  1. establish a formal UK–Indonesia geohazard disaster resilience partnership as a basis to coordinate joint research, policy dialogue and technical collaboration
  2. invest in long-term, interdisciplinary research on dynamic multi-hazard risks
  3. adopt a national geohazard data and information policy to ensure consistency, transparency and integration with ongoing initiatives such as Indonesia β€˜one map’ policy
  4. strengthen workforce value and knowledge exchange via fellowships, joint PhD or Masters programmes, mobility schemes and community engagement platforms
  5. embed disaster risk reduction in national development planning by requiring multi-hazard risk assessments for infrastructure and urban planning projects
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The white paper provides a unique opportunity to combine global scientific excellence and rich local expertise to address the urgent need to manage geological hazards. This partnership is not only instrumental in shaping research and policy but also in strengthening institutions. Our five recommendations are designed to be actionable, sustainable and rooted in the strength of UK–Indonesia research partnerships.

Dr Ekbal Hussain, remote sensing geoscientist at the 51ΑΤΖζ and coordinating author of the White Paper.

Subsidence and tsunami damage in Palu, Indonesia. BGS Β© 51ΑΤΖζ.
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Subsidence and tsunami damage in Palu, Indonesia. BGS Β© 51ΑΤΖζ.

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Indonesia is one of the most hazard-prone countries in the world and faces persistent risks from earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, and other geohazards. Therefore, advancing scientific knowledge and developing innovative approaches to disaster risk assessment and reduction are of the utmost importance. BRIN strongly supports this initiative and looks forward to deepening collaboration with UK partners to enhance scientific capacity, foster innovation, advance science-driven policy, and contribute to global knowledge and practices in disaster risk reduction.

Professor Ocky Karna Radjasa, Chairman, Research Organization of Earth Sciences and Maritime, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN).

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For BMKG, the White Paper holds both strategic and operational value. It reinforces our mandate in real-time monitoring, forecasting, and multi-hazard early warning services, while also enhancing coordination with national and local disaster management agencies.

Dr Nelly Florida Riama, Deputy Head of Geophysics, The Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics of the Republic of Indonesia (BMKG).

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PVMBG is committed to advancing geohazard science as a foundation for disaster risk reduction. Partnerships such as this UK–Indonesia collaboration are crucial to strengthen knowledge, build resilience, and enhance science-driven decision-making at both national and international levels.

Dr Priatin Hadi Wijaya, S T, M T Head, Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (PVMBG).

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51ΑΤΖζ scientists work with United Nations to update hazard profiles /news/bgs-scientists-work-with-united-nations-to-update-hazard-profiles/ Thu, 21 Aug 2025 07:00:00 +0000 /?p=118914 From tsunamis to sinkholes, the profiles provide a standardised, internationally agreed definition of hazards to support disaster risk management worldwide.

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First published in 2021, the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) International Science Council (ISC) Hazard Information Profiles (HIPs) provide a trusted source of standardised hazard information for governments, agencies, researchers and educators. The latest iteration of the profiles spans over 280 hazards, split into eight hazard groups. Over the last two years, BGS scientists Dr Julia Crummy and Prof John Rees have coordinated the review of the geological HIPs. In addition to BGS hazard specialists, the review drew on international collaborators and partners, with over 50 experts involved.

UNDRR-ISC lead a review of the HIPs every three to five years to incorporate the latest research and user needs surveys are circulated to ensure they are useful, useable and used. BGS had a key role in the introduction of multi-hazards into the latest iteration, covering situations where multiple hazards occur simultaneously, consecutively, or cumulatively. Examples include an earthquake triggering a tsunami or intense rainfall causing flooding and landslides, which can in turn lead to non-geological hazards such as health hazards and technological failures.

The include a multi-hazard context section highlighting the need for consideration of hazard interactions for disaster risk management and early warning. Emphasis was placed on cross-referencing between single hazards and hazard groups, to highlight the potential interconnected relationships of many of the hazards included in the HIPs.

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Coordinating the update of the geological HIPs has been an incredibly rewarding experience. We have spoken to hazard experts worldwide, strengthening existing relationships and building new ones to ensure that the profiles are the best they can be with the current state of knowledge.

Dr Julia Crummy, BGS Volcanologist

The HIPs were described as β€œgroundbreaking” in the 2023 Report of the Midterm Review of the Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 and continue to be widely used by intergovernmental bodies, national governments, disaster management agencies, humanitarian organisations, private sectors, and academic institutions, fostering a more comprehensive and unified approach to disaster risk monitoring, recording, and planning.

The latest are available through the UNDRR PreventionWeb website.

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Is your region susceptible? Britain geohazard hotspots revealed /news/is-your-region-susceptible-britains-geohazard-hotspots-revealed/ Thu, 14 Aug 2025 08:05:35 +0000 /?p=118519 From sinkholes to radon: new maps highlight the most geologically at-risk regions

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Scientists at the 51ΑΤΖζ (BGS) have published UK regional hazard maps revealing the most susceptible local authority regions around the country. The maps provide regional decision makers with an overview of the relevant hazards in their local area and provide an important indication of where more detailed hazard data may be required.

The analysis considers the occurrence of eight key geohazards relating to natural subsidence, the presence of the ground-gas radon, and the possibility of legacy mining in an area (excluding coal).

Analysis of the occurrence of eight key geohazards around Britain
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Geospatial assessment of susceptible geohazards in each British local authority. Source: Office for National Statistics licensed under Open Government Licence v.3.0. Contains OS data Β© Crown copyright and database right 2024. Download this map.

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Regions in the south (Devon; Dorset; Hampshire; Kent; Surrey; Wiltshire; West Sussex) and north (Cumbria; North Yorkshire; Northumberland) of England are shown to be the most susceptible, with some regions affected by all eight hazards. The Outer Hebrides and Halton (south of Liverpool) were revealed to be the least susceptible, with exposure to three or fewer hazards.

Various geological properties and processes are associated with each hazard but the majority result in some form of ground movement, causing similar societal impacts and damage to infrastructure and homes. For example, collapsible deposits, compressible ground, running sands and shrink-swell subsidence can all result in damage to roads and pathways, breaks in utility pipes and damage to foundations and buildings. Former underground workings and soluble rocks can both cause larger underground cavities that may be prone to collapse, causing more significant and sudden movement and damage. Radon is the exception; it is a natural radioactive gas that can enter buildings from the ground and can increase the risk to human health where there is exposure to high concentrations.

Figures released by the show thousands of claims relating to ground movement such as subsidence are being made annually, costing millions of pounds to remediate. costs tens of millions pounds a year to repair and there are dramatic examples of and soluble rock collapses causing sudden and catastrophic damage to residential areas. Radon gas is linked to in the UK each year.

It is important to note that there are other active hazards such as river and coastal erosion affecting some local authority regions, not yet included in this study. 

To create these maps, BGS has simplified and summarised its geological information. In this generalised form they give an indication as to which geohazards are most prevalent per region. For a more detailed view of specific areas that are most prone to particular geohazards risks please visit the BGS data product webpages for mining hazards (non including coal), ground instability and radon gas to find out how to access higher-resolution data.

51ΑΤΖζ has compiled its most comprehensive and authoritative datasets in this way to provide the maximum support for a diverse range of stakeholders, ranging from regulators to policymakers and planners.

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Presenting the data in this generalised manner provides a quick and convenient indication as to which geohazards are most prevalent by region, informing mitigation strategies and the acquisition of higher resolution data. We would encourage anyone interested in our hazard data to contact us or visit our dataset webpages for more information.

Katy Lee – BGS Product Portfolio Manager

The underlying BGS geohazard datasets from which these statistics are derived are each presented as five susceptibility classes per hazard. The summary maps shown here present statistics relating the upper three classifications which represent areas most likely to be impacted by the respective hazards. For the BGS GeoSure and mining hazard (not including coal) ground instability hazards these upper three classes represent areas where susceptibility to ground instability is possible, probable or known.  The BGS Radon Potential upper three classes cover 95 per cent of homes estimated to be at or above the threshold guideline for radon levels (200 becquerels per cubic metre).

For full details of the classification breakdown, please refer to the respective dataset product user guides:

Download the maps

Further information on the assessed hazards:

If you have any queries about the BGS data available to support hazard susceptibility assessments please get in touch (digitaldata@bgs.ac.uk) or visit our dataset webpages for more information.

Collapsible deposits are soil materials that undergo a significant reduction in volume (collapse) when saturated with water and then loaded.
/datasets/bgs-geosure-collapsible-deposits/

Soft materials like peat or alluvium that compact under a load.
/datasets/bgs-geosure-compressible-ground/

Downslope movement of materials due to the effect of gravity and influenced by factors including geology, drainage, and slope.

/datasets/bgs-geosure-landslides/

Subsurface voids resulting from past underground mining activity pose a possible hazard. Former underground workings, particularly where shallow, may collapse and cause surface settlement.
/datasets/mining-hazard-not-including-coal-coverage/

Radon is a naturally occurring radioactive gas, that can enters buildings from the ground. Exposure to high concentrations increases the risk of lung cancer.
/datasets/radon-data-indicative-atlas-of-radon/

Loosely-packed sandy layers in the subsurface that can be fluidised by water flowing through them, leading to damage to roads and pathways, breaks in utility pipes and connections, and structural damage to foundations and buildings.
/datasets/bgs-geosure-running-sand/

Clay-rich soils shrink and swell in response to changes in moisture content, leading to ground movement and potentially causing damage to buildings.
/datasets/geoclimateukcp18-premium/

Rocks such as limestone and salt can pose a hazard because they dissolve when exposed to water, creating underground cavities and potentially causing subsidence, sinkholes, and structural damage to buildings and infrastructure.
/datasets/bgs-geosure-soluble-rocks/

Download BGS Geospatial assessment of susceptible geohazards

Thank you for your interest in our digital data. BGS is constantly reviewing and developing our suite of data products and we value feedback from users to ensure that we are meeting their needs. Understanding how our data is being used also helps us to tailor future development plans and verify that we are providing data in the correct formats.

Before you download the data, we would really appreciate some feedback on how you plan to use the BGS geospatial assessment data . The information provided through this form is anonymous and will only be used by BGS and our partners to improve our products and services. It will be held securely and will not be used to identify any individual. For details on how we use your information, please view our privacy notice.

What sector do you work in?(Required)

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Kamchatka earthquake highlights the advances in tsunami early warning systems /news/kamchatka-earthquake-highlights-the-advances-in-tsunami-early-warning-systems/ Thu, 31 Jul 2025 13:13:38 +0000 /?p=118756 The response to the 8.8 magnitude earthquake in Russia has emphasised how far scientific understanding of tsunamis has come over the last two decades, and the improved mitigation measures that are now in place.

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On 29 July 2025, global monitoring systems detected a large earthquake offshore of the Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia, and widespread tsunami warnings were issued across the Pacific region. With a magnitude of 8.8, it was all too easy to think back to the 9.0 to 9.1 magnitude event that devastated Japan in 2011, or the 9.2 to 9.3 magnitude event on Boxing Day in 2004. Thankfully, on this occasion, the impact is believed to be relatively small by comparison.

However, the Kamchatka event did reveal impact of a different nature. Almost as soon as news broke of the earthquake, tsunami warnings were issued and millions of people were told to evacuate across locations at risk, 2 million in Japan alone. This was the result of two decades of research on hazard mitigation following the Boxing Day earthquake in 2004, which claimed the lives of more than 220 000 people in one of the largest disasters, in terms of loss of life, in modern history.

Immediately after the Indian Ocean event in 2004, BGS scientists participated in responsive marine research expeditions that resulted in increased knowledge of sea-bed deformation resulting from the earthquake. Longer-term responses resulted in major advances in understanding earthquake tsunami mechanisms, which have further contributed to disaster risk reduction efforts.

Most significant, in terms of public safety, has been the installation of improved tsunami warnings for coastal communities. Tsunami early warning systems (TEWS) are based on identifying earthquake magnitudes (usually larger than magnitude 7 to 8) that could result in hazardous tsunamis. The Indian Ocean tsunami took two hours to reach the coasts of India, Sri Lanka and Thailand, where around 80 000 people lost their lives. Many of them could potentially have been saved if there had been an operational TEWS in place.

diagram shows how tsunami wave information in the deep ocean is transmitted from DART systems via satellite to NOAA tsunami warning centers. (NOAA)
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How tsunami wave information in the deep ocean is transmitted to tsunami warning centers. Source:

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In the wake of the catastrophic 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami, further advancements were made in our understanding of tsunami mechanisms, which ultimately led to improved mitigation measures around the world.

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Our knowledge base today to plan for and respond to tsunamis is far beyond anything considered possible before the turn of the century.

Following the devastating events of 2004, research has allowed us to be more prepared than ever before to mitigate the threat of this formidable phenomenon. This was highlighted during the Kamchatka earthquake and subsequent tsunamis. TEWS were activated, which led to the evacuation of millions to safety and has ultimately led to a relatively minimal impact being reported.

Prof David Tappin, BGS marine geologist and leading tsunami expert.

Whilst warning systems for earthquake tsunamis are now effectively implemented for major events, there is still the major challenge of designing warning systems for other tsunami mechanisms, such as landslides and volcanic eruptions. Hopefully, with new approaches potentially available through applications such as artificial intelligence, these will become a reality.

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New collaboration aims to improve availability of real-time hazard impact data /news/bgs-and-floodtags-sign-mou/ Thu, 19 Jun 2025 08:02:34 +0000 /?p=118055 51ΑΤΖζ has signed a memorandum of understanding with FloodTags to collaborate on the use of large language models to improve real-time monitoring of geological hazards and their impacts.

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To date, the real-time impact data that is needed to effectively forecast and monitor geological hazard events has been unavailable or incomplete. The FloodTags platform aims to fill this gap by using large language models (LLMs) to extract real-time and historic information from social media platforms (X; YouTube; Bluesky; Facebook; Instagram) and more than 150 000 online news sources. This collaboration is a step towards providing timely, ground-level insight into geological hazards around the world.

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I am aware that many organisations around the world, including BGS, rely on the manual gathering of data from social media and the news during disaster events, and to update regional and national hazard inventories. This can add a significant time lag to relevant information being interpreted, particularly during natural disasters, which means any actions taken are also delayed. We have been working with FloodTags for some time now and are delighted to formalise our collaboration in this highly valuable area of research.

Catherine Pennington, BGS Engineering Geologist, landslides.

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This collaboration marks a major step forward for FloodTags. Partnering with BGS brings us the scientific expertise and data to expand into landslides and other geological hazards. Their deep knowledge of earth science opens the door to new applications for our real-time media monitoring tools. Combined with the power of large language models, this collaboration allows us to jointly deliver fast and relevant disaster insights for both hydrological and geological hazards. This helps governments and emergency services in making more informed, evidence-based decisions.

Jurjen Wagemaker, founder of FloodTags.

As a first activity under the new Memorandum of Understanding, BGS and FloodTags are in Indonesia this week topresent the first version of HazTags, an LLM-powered platform for monitoring floodsand landslides using social and news media data. They will discuss long-term collaboration in Indonesia with:

  • theIndonesian national research agency, BRIN
  • Centre for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (PVMBG)
  • Indonesian Red Cross (PMI)
  • Meteorology, Climatology and GeophysicsAgency (BMKG)
  • Ministry for Public Works (PU)
  • National Agency for Disaster Management (BPBD)
  • Research Centre for Disaster Mitigation (ITB)

For more information, please contact BGS press (bgspress@bgs.ac.uk) or call 07790 607 010.

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New Memorandum of Understanding paves the way for more collaborative research in the Philippines /news/new-memorandum-of-understanding-paves-the-way-for-more-collaborative-research-in-the-philippines/ Tue, 21 Jan 2025 14:45:19 +0000 /?p=115799 The partnership will focus on research on multi-hazard preparedness within the country.

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51ΑΤΖζ has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) to strengthen collaboration in research and innovation and to share knowledge on geological hazards.

The Philippines was identified in the World Bank 2024 World Risk Report as the country most at risk from natural hazards, facing the combined risks of volcanoes, earthquakes, rising sea levels, temperatures, and an increased frequency of extreme weather events. The Philippines is also one of the countries most at risk from the effects of climate change.

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We’re delighted to have signed this MoU with our Philippine partners, which strengthens our already positive and longstanding relationship. Together, we will continue our important work to reduce the impact of natural hazards within the country, helping to build resilience and supporting PHIVOLCS in their efforts to reduce the impacts on communities due to natural hazards.

Annie Winson, BGS Senior Multihazard Scientist.

The signing took place on 15 November 2024, whilst BGS staff were in the Philippines to undertake a joint workshop on emerging technologies in multi-hazard risk assessment. The MoU builds on a strong existing partnership between BGS and PHIVOLCS, which has been working over the last five years to develop methods for integrating 3D visualisation and virtual reality into hazard mapping and preparedness. This relationship is part of a wider partnership between the Philippines and BGS, which has already produced projects such as and outputs such as the .

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I would like to thank the 51ΑΤΖζ for forging this partnership with us. For a country that experiences multiple disasters each year, it is essential that we seek out all available expertise to continuously improve our efforts in disaster preparedness and mitigation. Meanwhile, we at PHIVOLCS commit to sharing our expertise, particularly in the disciplines of earthquake and volcano hazards and risk research. All these have the goal of creating more resilient communities in our respective countries.

Teresito C Bacolocl, director, DOST-PHIVOLCS

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Twenty years on: the Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami /news/twenty-years-on-the-indian-ocean-earthquake-and-tsunami/ Thu, 26 Dec 2024 06:15:00 +0000 /?p=115588 Boxing Day 2024 marks 20 years since the Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami. Prof David Tappin reflects on the disaster and discusses what we have learnt since 2004.

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On Boxing Day, 26 December 2004, a magnitude 9.2 to 9.3 earthquake struck off the west coast of northern Sumatra in Indonesia. It triggered a tsunami with waves reaching 30 m in height that claimed the lives of more than 220 000 people in one of the largest disasters, in terms of loss of life, in modern history. Local residents and tourists in countries including Thailand, Sri Lanka and India would all face a fight for survival as giant walls of water swept through coastal communities and far inland.

Known by the scientific community as the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake, we now know more about the underlying reasons that led to the disaster: the unexpected occurrence of a gigantic earthquake in the region, the lack of a tsunami warning system, and a lack of awareness amongst local inhabitants and visitors about the hazard and how to respond.

There have been other devastating tsunami events over the past 30 years, aside from the Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake, including in Papua New Guinea in 1998 and the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 2011. The tsunami events of 1998, 2004 and 2011 were catastrophic and it seems that we are now living in an β€˜age of tsunamis’. The events have resulted in better understanding of tsunami mechanisms and improved mitigation measures around the world.

Immediately after the 2004 event, the Hyogo Framework of Action for 2005 to 2015 was adopted at the World Disaster Reduction Conference and later endorsed by the UN General Assembly. It was created for building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters, and consists of five action items:

β€’ make disaster risk reduction a national and local priority
β€’ identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning
β€’ use knowledge, innovation and education to build understanding and awareness
β€’ reduce risk factors
β€’ be prepared and ready to act

Immediately after the Indian Ocean event, BGS scientists participated in responsive marine research expeditions that resulted in increased knowledge of sea-bed deformation resulting from the earthquake. Of particular importance was whether submarine landslides triggered by the earthquake could have contributed to the tsunami. The surprising result was that, despite the massive earthquake magnitude, the landslides identified were numerous but small, so did not contribute to the tsunami.

Longer-term responses to the Indian Ocean event have resulted in major advances in understanding earthquake tsunami mechanisms, which have further contributed to disaster risk reduction efforts. Most important was improved tsunami warnings for coastal communities. Before 2004, the only tsunami early warning system (TEWS) was in the Pacific Ocean. TEWS are based on identifying earthquake magnitudes (usually larger than magnitude 7 to 8) than could result in hazardous tsunamis. With the Indian Ocean tsunami, around 80 000 people died along the coasts of India, Sri Lanka and Thailand that could have been saved if there was an operational TEWS, because the tsunami took two hours to reach these locations.

The 2004 event resulted in the establishment of TEWS in the Indian and Atlantic oceans and the Mediterranean and Caribbean seas. These can now identify earthquakes that could generate hazardous tsunamis and provide warnings to local coastal populations, resulting in evacuation from threatened locations.

Other practical developments in earthquake and tsunami mitigation include:

β€’ early detection of potentially or tsunami generating earthquakes
β€’ identification of tsunami magnitudes and their likely impacts
β€’ more accurate modelling of different tsunami mechanisms, such as earthquakes and submarine landslides
β€’ improved instrumental measurements of offshore and deep-ocean tsunamis
β€’ global studies of recurrence intervals of large earthquakes in subduction zones, enabling improved statistical analysis of past events, better assessments of probable maximum size and long-term forecasting of great subduction zone earthquakes

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Our knowledge base today, to plan and respond to tsunamis, is far beyond anything considered possible 30 years ago. Devastating tsunami events are, fortunately, quite rare, but as the last few decades have proved, can happen with devastating consequences.

The 20th anniversary of the Boxing Day Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami is critically important for both honouring the victims of this tragedy and reminding ourselves that it will happen again in the future. Thanks to research undertaken over last twenty years, we are now more prepared than ever before to mitigate the threat of this formidable phenomenon.

Prof David Tappin, lead marine tsunami expert at BGS.

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