Malaysia faces substantial risks from rainfall-triggered landslides driven by extreme meteorological conditions. Between 1961 and 2024, the country recorded over , causing significant loss of life and economic damages exceeding $1 billion. This figure is set to rise in the future due to climate change and rapid urbanisation, leaving low-income households and small businesses highly vulnerable.

Whilst there are existing systems for monitoring and mapping these landslides, researchers have found a critical gap in understanding the economic losses landslides cause and how they can be systematically assessed to support anticipatory and disaster finance solutions for hazard recovery.

The project, ‘Trigger index for rainfall-induced landslide risk assessment for enhanced resilience’ or TRIGGER, will see BGS and project partners and develop a landslide trigger index to support forewarning and rapid recovery. It will link past landslide losses with data on rainfall, ground conditions and the locations where communities and infrastructure assets are most exposed. This will help researchers and stakeholders to better understand the potential impacts of future extreme rainfall.

Through the TRIGGER project, we are linking up with colleagues in Malaysia to develop a landslide trigger index, to assist in better understanding the potential impacts of future extreme rainfall and help build resilience by enabling quicker recovery after disasters.

Dr Nikhil Nedumpallile-Vasu, BGS engineering geologist.

It is anticipated that this project will enable rapid, risk based, post-disaster financial relief, incentivise investment in resilient infrastructure, and support poverty reduction by protecting those most at risk. The project will offer a scalable model for other Indo-Pacific countries facing similar hazard profiles. 

Funding

The project is funded by the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office through its ‘’ programme, for innovative and effective climate adaptation and resilience projects.

The 51ÁÔÆæ (BGS) has upgraded its geomagnetic forecast today (12 November 2025) to the highest intensity level amid an ongoing solar storm, which prompted the aurora displays that entertained stargazers across the UK overnight.

Current predictions suggest that a second storm, feeding off the first, will result in potentially the largest solar storm to hit our planet in over two decades. Scientists believe that it has the potential to achieve the maximum level of G5 on the . Dubbed a ‘cannibal storm’, the first event has already disrupted communications and global positioning system (GPS) satellite accuracy. At ground level, it created the biggest measured geoelectric field since BGS records began in 2012.

The increase in activity from the coming storm could have further, significant impacts on space and ground-based technologies, including communication systems, global positioning systems (GPS) and satellite orbits.

Geomagnetic storms are caused by solar activity interacting with the Earth magnetic field, which has implications for national energy infrastructure and navigation. For this reason, it is listed as one of the primary hazards on the UK .

Space weather can have a real impact on the lives of people across the planet. BGS records real-time data of geomagnetic conditions, underpinning the national forecast service. Our data suggests that this event could be one of the biggest storms we’ve seen in 20 years.

Dr Gemma Richardson, BGS Geomagnetic Hazard Specialist.

Like any forecast, it is not possible to say with certainty exactly how big the storm will be. Solar storms travel from the Sun and can reach Earth in as little as 17 hours, although they can also take significantly longer. Based on satellite observations, we anticipate this event will be significant; early indications such as ground measurements of solar energetic particles are some of the largest recorded since 2005.

Assuming clear, dark skies, there is an increased chance of seeing the aurora borealis from the UK tonight. Observers in Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland have the best chance if the weather is favourable.

Further information

The Jakarta Fault runs beneath the southern part of the capital city of Indonesia, Jakarta. Jakarta is one of the largest cities in the world, with a population exceeding 30 million in the metropolitan area. New research by BGS and Indonesian colleagues shows that this fault could generate a magnitude 6.5 earthquake, which would expose a large number of people as well as significantly important economic infrastructure to strong ground shaking.

Between 2019 and 2023, Indonesian scientists from the Institut Teknologi Bandung (ITB), National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) and the Geospatial Information Agency (BIG) collected ground movement data across the Jakarta Fault from a dense network of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS). These measurements revealed slow, millimetre-scale changes in ground movement occurring across the fault, which indicated energy accumulating that will need to be released, potentially in a future earthquake.

Geophysical modelling shows that ground movement is accruing on the fault at 3.2 mm per year, with the fault locked or ‘stuck’ down to at least 7.2 km. This accumulation has been happening for at least 210 years, which means that releasing it all now would result in a magnitude 6.5 earthquake.

While magnitude 6.5 earthquakes are not uncommon in Indonesia, they mostly occur under the ocean. The danger here is that the earthquake could occur in the middle of a densely built-up area like Jakarta, which means a much higher level of risk to life and infrastructure.

Dr Ekbal Hussain, remote sensing geoscientist at BGS and research co-leader.

The Jakarta Fault is a relatively newly recognised major tectonic fault on the Indonesian island of Java. It is a part of a broader fault system that cuts across most of Java, which, with a population of 157 million people, is the most densely populated island on Earth. Geophysical surveys conducted by BGS in the 1970s and 1980s, in collaboration with the Indonesian Geological Research and Development Center, helped identify this major tectonic structure for the first time, but its earthquake potential has remained unclear until now.

This research forms part of strategic UK/Indonesia research partnerships on geological hazard solutions, as outlined in a recently published White Paper, UK/Indonesia partnerships for advancing geohazard science for disaster risk assessment in Indonesia. The paper, co-developed by key Indonesian and UK hazard experts, presents a strategic roadmap to significantly reducing the impacts of geological hazards in the country. Importantly, it highlights the strength of UK and Indonesian science partnerships for delivering the best disaster resilience science.

More information

Access the full paper:

Funding

This is work is funded by the 51ÁÔÆæ National Capability programme. The BGS and Indonesian researchers involved in this study are continuing their engagement with local government to address the hazard challenges raised in this work.

The Geological Survey of Northern Ireland (GSNI) was the big winner at the this week. Their Atlantic Geohazard Risk Management (AGEO) project, supported by , emerged with two awards.

The RegioStars Awards have become Europe’s label of excellence for EU-funded projects that demonstrate the impact and inclusiveness of regional development. There were five categories of awards, in addition to the overall Public Choice Award. AGEO won in the ‘A Green Europe’ category and was chosen from a five finalists, shortlisted from 266 entries. The AGEO project was also honoured with the ‘Public Choice’ award, voted on by just under 20 000 citizens from all across Europe. AGEO received around 2000 of the votes. 

The AGEO project brought together scientists, local communities and governments to address geohazards in the Atlantic region through citizen science, Earth observation and innovative risk management tools. By implementing five pilot citizens’ observatories in the Atlantic region, the project demonstrated how to empower local communities to engage in early warning systems and climate challenges, working with local stakeholders at all levels.

The Citizens’ Observatory in Northern Ireland (NI) was developed at the Giant Causeway, where GSNI Kieran Parker, senior geohazards geologist, and Dr Kirstin Lemon, science programme manager, worked closely with external partners and engaged comprehensively with a range of stakeholders.

We are pleased to have come away with two awards at the RegioStars Awards for our AGEO project which brought together a number of stakeholders to help empower local communities to participate in early warning systems.

Dr Kirstin Lemon, GSNI Science Programme Manager.

Encouraged by the European Commission, the project partners are now exploring ways to develop the next stage for AGEO, hoping to bring the experiences of the project to a wider European audience.

Indonesia is one of the world most hazard-prone nations and experiences over 2000 disasters annually. Natural hazard disasters in Indonesia are responsible for the loss of hundreds to thousands of lives each year and costs the national economy US$1 to US$3 billion[1], [2]. Population growth, increased urbanisation, embedded poverty and rising inequality mean these risks are rising.

Effective disaster risk reduction across the spectrum of geohazards, from landslides to tsunamis, depends on decisions grounded in the best available earth science. Yet significant knowledge gaps remain, particularly in understanding previous hazardous events, how they shape future risk, and how lessons from the past can best inform effective hazard-management strategies.

A new White Paper, co-developed by the 51ÁÔÆæ (BGS) and UK and Indonesian multi-disciplinary hazard experts, presents a strategic roadmap to advance geohazard science assessment and significantly reduce the impacts of geological hazards in the country by 2035.

The report, titled ‘, is intended to benefit policymakers, funders, researchers and institutions that are committed to collaboratively reducing disaster risk in Indonesia.

The paper sets out five recommendations to support evidence-based resilient development in one of the world most hazard-prone nations:

1. establish a formal UK–Indonesia geohazard disaster resilience partnership as a basis to coordinate joint research, policy dialogue and technical collaboration
2. invest in long-term, interdisciplinary research on dynamic multi-hazard risks
3. adopt a national geohazard data and information policy to ensure consistency, transparency and integration with ongoing initiatives such as Indonesia ‘one map’ policy
4. strengthen workforce value and knowledge exchange via fellowships, joint PhD or Masters programmes, mobility schemes and community engagement platforms
5. embed disaster risk reduction in national development planning by requiring multi-hazard risk assessments for infrastructure and urban planning projects

The white paper provides a unique opportunity to combine global scientific excellence and rich local expertise to address the urgent need to manage geological hazards. This partnership is not only instrumental in shaping research and policy but also in strengthening institutions. Our five recommendations are designed to be actionable, sustainable and rooted in the strength of UK–Indonesia research partnerships.

Dr Ekbal Hussain, remote sensing geoscientist at the 51ÁÔÆæ and coordinating author of the White Paper.

Indonesia is one of the most hazard-prone countries in the world and faces persistent risks from earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, and other geohazards. Therefore, advancing scientific knowledge and developing innovative approaches to disaster risk assessment and reduction are of the utmost importance. BRIN strongly supports this initiative and looks forward to deepening collaboration with UK partners to enhance scientific capacity, foster innovation, advance science-driven policy, and contribute to global knowledge and practices in disaster risk reduction.

Professor Ocky Karna Radjasa, Chairman, Research Organization of Earth Sciences and Maritime, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN).

For BMKG, the White Paper holds both strategic and operational value. It reinforces our mandate in real-time monitoring, forecasting, and multi-hazard early warning services, while also enhancing coordination with national and local disaster management agencies.

Dr Nelly Florida Riama, Deputy Head of Geophysics, The Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics of the Republic of Indonesia (BMKG).

PVMBG is committed to advancing geohazard science as a foundation for disaster risk reduction. Partnerships such as this UK–Indonesia collaboration are crucial to strengthen knowledge, build resilience, and enhance science-driven decision-making at both national and international levels.

Dr Priatin Hadi Wijaya, S T, M T Head, Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (PVMBG).

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[2]

Landslides cause significant disruption to the road and rail network across Great Britain and can lead to fatalities. Identifying active slope failure is a difficult task, as monitoring is costly and time consuming, especially at a national scale.

In collaboration with the University of Florence in Italy, BGS has used a new, semi-automated method that uses artificial intelligence (AI) to identify the slopes that are actively moving, highlighting areas potentially at risk.

Previously, BGS has used interferometric synthetic aperture radar, or InSAR, for monitoring landslides. One of the benefits of InSAR is the large amount of information available, especially at a national scale; but analysing all these data present a challenge for scientists. To help tackle this problem, we have developed a semi-automated method that combines a type of AI called machine learning with clustering tools. The benefit of this approach is that we can analyse data for the whole of Great Britain, which wouldn’t have been possible before.

Results from this recent analysis highlighted around 3000 slopes that showed consistent movement of over 2.5mm per year between 2018 and 2022. These actively moving slopes affect approximately 14000km of road and 360km of railway — 2.4per cent and 1per cent of the entire national network, respectively.

The slopes deemed unstable are not all linked to landslides. Rather, they show the areas that should be focused on not only for future landslide research and mapping but also for the effect on local infrastructure, such as buildings and roads.

Our new, semi-automated approach supports the work of landslide specialists and provides a practical solution for large-scale geohazard management. The tool has helped to classify more than 300000 slopes around the UK and has highlighted 3000 slopes that have moved in a four-year period.

Satellite InSAR data has enormous potential for understanding ground deformation, but its complexity and the volume of data require advanced automated tools to extract meaningful information. Our semi-automated method helps bridge this gap by identifying the most critical areas to focus on, enabling efficient monitoring and helping to prevent serious damage.

Dr Alessandro Novellino, BGS remote sensing geologist

This approach already provides a powerful disaster-management tool, allowing decision makers to quickly identify areas that are currently at risk from ground motion. By highlighting these vulnerable areas, it supports smarter prioritisation of detailed field surveys, maintenance, and mitigation strategies, reducing costs and improving safety.

Next steps will focus on refining this national-scale analysis by integrating more detailed topographical data, to move from identifying unstable slopes to automatically mapping individual landslides within those slopes. This will enable more precise classification of landslide types and extents and the likely triggering mechanisms. The results will be shared with key stakeholders, including local authorities, infrastructure owners and the Natural Hazards Partnership.

Camilla Medici, postdoctoral researcher at the University of Florence

The research paper, , is now available to read.

Five UK-made quantum magnetometers are being installed across the UK to provide complete national coverage of the magnetic field for the first time.

Quantum magnetometers are highly sensitive instruments that can detect variations in the Earth’s magnetic field with extreme precision. These new sensors will provide data to BGS that will give scientists a more comprehensive understanding of how the magnetic field changes during extreme magnetic storms. These are the same storms that trigger aurorae like those the UK experienced during May 2024.

During these storms, variations of the geomagnetic field can be large enough to cause localised effects on grounded technology such as power grids, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers and railway signals. Until now, it has not been possible to study these regional variations using the three existing UK geomagnetic observatories. The new quantum magnetometers have been strategically placed around the country to fill in gaps in the national coverage and allow small-scale, local variations to be monitored.

The more that is known about the nature of magnetic storms — how often they occur, how big they can be and how they interact with our natural and artificial environments — the better scientists can advise Government, the public and industry on where the risks are to the technologies we rely on. This allows organisations such as the UK’s power distribution companies to take measures to protect supplies and services against the effects of space weather.

The quantum magnetometers have been developed and optimised by the University of Strathclyde and the Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC) RAL Space. The sites of these new sensors have been carefully selected across the UK and have been picked for their suitability for detecting magnetic signals with minimal interference. They are installed at:

• Aberystwyth, Ceredigion
• Boulby, Noth Yorkshire
• Blickling, Norfolk
• Chilbolton Observatory, Hampshire
• Thurso, Caithness

We are incredibly excited to be able to study the magnetic field around the UK in greater detail than ever before. The installation of the five new quantum magnetometers will help to fill in the gaps between the existing observatories and will improve our vision of the changes taking place during extreme magnetic storms.

These new measurements will greatly enhance our understanding of how extreme magnetic storms impact different parts of the country. This means that society in general will have access to the advice and information needed to understand where we are vulnerable to magnetic storms and to make informed decisions on how to mitigate against them.

Dr Ciarán Beggan, geophysicist at BGS.

The quantum magnetometers were developed through the , specifically the Quantum Technology Hub in Sensors and Timing. The funding to build and deploy the sensors comes from UK Research and Innovation (51ÁÔÆæ).

Landslides are an ongoing global threat that can lead to significant loss of life and damage to infrastructure. The paper, ‘’, describes a new geophysical method that enables a way of observing the subsurface to look for signs of underlying slope failure. Signs include moisture, suction and shear strength, which, when monitored, can provide earlier warning of hazard. The paper, led by BGS Honorary Research Associate (HRA) Arnaud Watlet with 16 co-authors — 10 of which are from BGS — has been awarded the 2024 British Geotechnical Association (BGA) medal for ‘meritorious contributions to geotechnical science or practice’.

An example of electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data collected from the Hollin Hill Landslide Observatory, which generates 4D resistivity models, providing insights into subsurface structures. BGS © 51ÁÔÆæ.

The research was undertaken at BGS Hollin Hill Landslide Observatory in Yorkshire. The slope at Hollin Hill features slow-moving, clay-rich land, common to much lowland landslide activity across the world. Change was monitored at the observatory over a two-year period, focusing on the wettest parts of each season. Researchers used electrical resistivity tomography and low-frequency distributed acoustic sensing to investigate the integrity of unstable slopes at various scales. Combining resistivity and fibre optics to observe changes in ground composition allowed for better monitoring and evaluation of natural and engineered slopes.

Landslides triggered by rainfall can significantly affect communities and infrastructure. Predicting exactly where and when they’ll occur is challenging, as local factors like geology, slope orientation and ground moisture all play a role. Most landslide early warning systems mainly track slope movement or rainfall intensity but, by monitoring ground moisture, we can extend the warning period at particularly vulnerable locations.

Arnaud Watlet, BGS HRA and lead author of the paper.

We are delighted to receive the BGA award, which recognises the incredible work and strong dedication of our team to landslide prevention.

Jim Whitely, BGS HRA and co-author of the paper.