As of mid-December, 2025 has seen 309 earthquakes recorded across the UK so far. The most active regions included Perthshire and the western Highlands in Scotland, Lancashire and Yorkshire in England, and southern parts of Wales.

Whilst many of these seismic events were too subtle to be felt by members of the public, the network of 80 monitoring stations across the UK operated by the 51ÁÔÆæ (BGS) has been recording the movement beneath our feet to an exceptional level of accuracy.

51ÁÔÆæ is the national body responsible for recording earthquakes and our annual snapshot of UK earthquake data, published today, shows 2025 has proven above average for earthquakes across the UK.

Thirty-four of the earthquakes occurred near Loch Lyon in Perth and Kinross between October and December. This includes the two largest onshore earthquakes, which occurred just hours apart on 20 October. A magnitude 3.7 quake was followed by one of magnitude 3.6, with local residents reporting the experience as though ‘a large lorry had crashed’ or ‘like an underground subway under my house’; another stated that ‘the house shook and all the windows rattled’. BGS received 198 ‘felt reports’ following the event, some more than 60 km from the epicentre. A magnitude 3.2 earthquake in Lancashire in early December was even more widely felt, with nearly 700 felt reports submitted.

In total, BGS received 1320 reports from members of the public who felt earthquakes this year. This vital ‘citizen science’ allows us to collect important contextual data around each event, including effects at the surface such as noise or levels of shaking.

The data shows that earthquakes occurred in many parts of Great Britain over the past 12 months, with numerous events in Scotland, England and Wales that were each significant enough to be widely felt by many nearby.

Whilst thankfully major earthquakes of devasting magnitude are extremely unlikely, the country on average experienced an earthquake almost once a day this year.

It is a reminder that small earthquakes happen all the time and it remains of critical importance that they are studied to help us understand the possible impact of the rare large earthquakes on major energy and infrastructure projects around the country.

Dr Brian Baptie, BGS seismologist

Although the magnitude of many of these earthquakes is too low to be felt by humans, the largest seismic events observed in the UK, with magnitudes in the range of 5 to 6, can pose a threat. This research, which is in part publicly funded through UK Research and Innovation, helps improve understanding of seismic risk around the country and is crucial information for the Government, industry and regulators, in order to mitigate the threat to buildings and infrastructure.

Dr Baptie says it makes sense that Perth and Kinross tops the list of seismic activity across 2025.  

The west of Scotland is one of more active parts of the UK. Some of this activity can be attributed to well-known geological faults like the Great Glen Fault and the Highland Boundary Fault. By contrast, north-east Scotland experiences very few earthquakes.

Dr Brian Baptie, BGS seismologist

In addition to naturally occurring events, induced seismicity (such as sonic booms) that are caused by human activity are also recorded in the data. These readings are kept as part of a BGS archive of continuous ground-motion recordings, dating back over several decades.

The Richter scale, which is used to accurately record and compare earthquakes, is a logarithmic scale and not linear. Each order of magnitude is 32 times more intensive than the last one. In other words, a magnitude 2 earthquake is 32 times more intense than one of magnitude 1 and a magnitude 3 is almost 1000 times greater. As you progress up through the scale, vast amounts of energy are being unleashed under the ground, which is why some earthquakes can have such a devastating impact.

Although larger earthquakes in our region are rare, they do occur. Great Britain and the surrounding areas typically experience a magnitude 4 event every three to four years, a magnitude 5 event every few decades with the most recent being in , and a magnitude 6 every few hundred years. An event of this scale was last recorded in the . Although infrequent, the fact that such large events can happen means it is vital that earthquakes are studied over the long term so that an accurate picture of the risk around the country can be stablished.

Further information, including a , is available on the BGS website.

Current methods used to forecast aftershocks — secondary quakes that can prove more deadly than initial earthquakes — can take several hours or days. New machine learning models have now been developed that can forecast where and how many aftershocks will take place following an earthquake in close to real-time.

Researchers from BGS, the University of Edinburgh and the University of Padua created the artificial intelligence (AI)-driven forecasting tools. They were developed by training machine learning models on earthquake data from California, New Zealand, Italy, Japan and Greece, all parts of the world that regularly experience earthquakes.

The rapid forecasts produced by AI-powered tools could help authorities with decision making about public safety measures and resource allocation in disaster-hit areas. The team analysed the AI models’ ability to produce forecasts of how many aftershocks will take place within the 24 hours following earthquakes of magnitude 4 or higher. They compared the performance of their models with the most widely used forecasting system, known as the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, which is used operationally in Italy, New Zealand and the USA.

While both model types show similar performance at forecasting aftershock risk, the ETAS model took much longer to produce results. As it involves running a large number of simulations, the ETAS model can take up to several hours or days on a single mid-range computer.

By training the AI tools on records of past earthquakes from regions with different tectonic landscapes, researchers say their models could be used to forecast aftershock risk in most parts of the world that experience earthquakes.

The research, published in Earth, Planets and Space, was supported by the European Union Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie SPIN Innovative Training Network.

This study shows that machine learning models can produce aftershock forecasts within seconds, showing comparable quality to that of ETAS forecasts. Their speed and low computational cost offer major benefits for operational use: coupled with the near real-time development of machine learning-based, high-resolution earthquake catalogues, these models will enhance our ability to monitor and understand seismic crises as they evolve.

Foteini Dervisi, study leader, PhD student at BGS and the University of Edinburgh School of GeoSciences.

The Jakarta Fault runs beneath the southern part of the capital city of Indonesia, Jakarta. Jakarta is one of the largest cities in the world, with a population exceeding 30 million in the metropolitan area. New research by BGS and Indonesian colleagues shows that this fault could generate a magnitude 6.5 earthquake, which would expose a large number of people as well as significantly important economic infrastructure to strong ground shaking.

Between 2019 and 2023, Indonesian scientists from the Institut Teknologi Bandung (ITB), National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) and the Geospatial Information Agency (BIG) collected ground movement data across the Jakarta Fault from a dense network of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS). These measurements revealed slow, millimetre-scale changes in ground movement occurring across the fault, which indicated energy accumulating that will need to be released, potentially in a future earthquake.

Geophysical modelling shows that ground movement is accruing on the fault at 3.2 mm per year, with the fault locked or ‘stuck’ down to at least 7.2 km. This accumulation has been happening for at least 210 years, which means that releasing it all now would result in a magnitude 6.5 earthquake.

While magnitude 6.5 earthquakes are not uncommon in Indonesia, they mostly occur under the ocean. The danger here is that the earthquake could occur in the middle of a densely built-up area like Jakarta, which means a much higher level of risk to life and infrastructure.

Dr Ekbal Hussain, remote sensing geoscientist at BGS and research co-leader.

The Jakarta Fault is a relatively newly recognised major tectonic fault on the Indonesian island of Java. It is a part of a broader fault system that cuts across most of Java, which, with a population of 157 million people, is the most densely populated island on Earth. Geophysical surveys conducted by BGS in the 1970s and 1980s, in collaboration with the Indonesian Geological Research and Development Center, helped identify this major tectonic structure for the first time, but its earthquake potential has remained unclear until now.

This research forms part of strategic UK/Indonesia research partnerships on geological hazard solutions, as outlined in a recently published White Paper, UK/Indonesia partnerships for advancing geohazard science for disaster risk assessment in Indonesia. The paper, co-developed by key Indonesian and UK hazard experts, presents a strategic roadmap to significantly reducing the impacts of geological hazards in the country. Importantly, it highlights the strength of UK and Indonesian science partnerships for delivering the best disaster resilience science.

More information

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Funding

This is work is funded by the 51ÁÔÆæ National Capability programme. The BGS and Indonesian researchers involved in this study are continuing their engagement with local government to address the hazard challenges raised in this work.

Indonesia is one of the world most hazard-prone nations and experiences over 2000 disasters annually. Natural hazard disasters in Indonesia are responsible for the loss of hundreds to thousands of lives each year and costs the national economy US$1 to US$3 billion[1], [2]. Population growth, increased urbanisation, embedded poverty and rising inequality mean these risks are rising.

Effective disaster risk reduction across the spectrum of geohazards, from landslides to tsunamis, depends on decisions grounded in the best available earth science. Yet significant knowledge gaps remain, particularly in understanding previous hazardous events, how they shape future risk, and how lessons from the past can best inform effective hazard-management strategies.

A new White Paper, co-developed by the 51ÁÔÆæ (BGS) and UK and Indonesian multi-disciplinary hazard experts, presents a strategic roadmap to advance geohazard science assessment and significantly reduce the impacts of geological hazards in the country by 2035.

The report, titled ‘, is intended to benefit policymakers, funders, researchers and institutions that are committed to collaboratively reducing disaster risk in Indonesia.

The paper sets out five recommendations to support evidence-based resilient development in one of the world most hazard-prone nations:

1. establish a formal UK–Indonesia geohazard disaster resilience partnership as a basis to coordinate joint research, policy dialogue and technical collaboration
2. invest in long-term, interdisciplinary research on dynamic multi-hazard risks
3. adopt a national geohazard data and information policy to ensure consistency, transparency and integration with ongoing initiatives such as Indonesia ‘one map’ policy
4. strengthen workforce value and knowledge exchange via fellowships, joint PhD or Masters programmes, mobility schemes and community engagement platforms
5. embed disaster risk reduction in national development planning by requiring multi-hazard risk assessments for infrastructure and urban planning projects

The white paper provides a unique opportunity to combine global scientific excellence and rich local expertise to address the urgent need to manage geological hazards. This partnership is not only instrumental in shaping research and policy but also in strengthening institutions. Our five recommendations are designed to be actionable, sustainable and rooted in the strength of UK–Indonesia research partnerships.

Dr Ekbal Hussain, remote sensing geoscientist at the 51ÁÔÆæ and coordinating author of the White Paper.

Indonesia is one of the most hazard-prone countries in the world and faces persistent risks from earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, and other geohazards. Therefore, advancing scientific knowledge and developing innovative approaches to disaster risk assessment and reduction are of the utmost importance. BRIN strongly supports this initiative and looks forward to deepening collaboration with UK partners to enhance scientific capacity, foster innovation, advance science-driven policy, and contribute to global knowledge and practices in disaster risk reduction.

Professor Ocky Karna Radjasa, Chairman, Research Organization of Earth Sciences and Maritime, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN).

For BMKG, the White Paper holds both strategic and operational value. It reinforces our mandate in real-time monitoring, forecasting, and multi-hazard early warning services, while also enhancing coordination with national and local disaster management agencies.

Dr Nelly Florida Riama, Deputy Head of Geophysics, The Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics of the Republic of Indonesia (BMKG).

PVMBG is committed to advancing geohazard science as a foundation for disaster risk reduction. Partnerships such as this UK–Indonesia collaboration are crucial to strengthen knowledge, build resilience, and enhance science-driven decision-making at both national and international levels.

Dr Priatin Hadi Wijaya, S T, M T Head, Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (PVMBG).

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New data from BGS reveals that Oasis is the ‘most seismic’ act to have performed at Murrayfield Stadium over the last two decades, a fact that may come as little surprise to fans of a band as famous for its internal turbulence as its musical output.

Researchers have reviewed archived data from a nearby seismic monitoring station, roughly 4 km from the venue, to compare the earth-shaking impact of the biggest acts to perform in Scotland largest stadium. In terms of crowd energy, the Mancunian band performance in 2009 really does set them apart as the capital true ‘Shakermakers’.

Murrayfield Stadium most seismic concerts (2004 to 2024)

Whilst the music may have been the impetus, the energy detected by the national monitoring stations is not driven be the volume of the band or the crowd; it the movement of fans jumping and dancing in time to the music, with the height of the jumping and weight of the crowd also potential factors. It raises the tantalising possibility of comparing the response of a band fans to concerts in different decades and the ability for fans to show they can still ‘Go let it out’.

In 2009, seismic signals generated by Oasis fans were consistent with a crowd energy of 215 kW at its peak, enough to power around 30 of the scooters featured on the iconic ‘Be Here Now’ album cover.

Our network of sensors around the country is sensitive enough to pick up ground movement from a source miles away, which may not be detectable to humans, and precise enough to register exact timestamps for when the events occur.

The peak energy reading was recorded around 20:30 on that June evening back in 2009. That correlates to the time the band first took the stage and performed ‘Rock ‘N’ Roll Star’, which couldn’t be more fitting in terms of topping our seismic music chart!

Callum Harrison, BGS Seismologist.

The historical data is part of a BGS archive of continuous ground motion recordings from seismic sensors around the country, which dates back over several decades. Collectively, this information is used to carefully monitor the UK seismic activity, which experiences around 300 events each year. Although the magnitude of many of these earthquakes is too low to be felt by humans, some of the larger seismic events can pose a risk to buildings and infrastructure. Understanding this risk provides crucial information for scientists and decision makers on how to best mitigate this hazard.

In this instance, we are only looking back over 20 years; however, geological processes occur over vast time scales that can be difficult for humans to comprehend. Improving our understanding of historical earthquakes is an important part of BGS’s research in trying to understand and mitigate the seismic risk around the country.

Callum Harrison, BGS Seismologist.

As fans eagerly await the band return to the Scottish capital on 8 August 2025, the question now is whether the those in attendance still have the energy to rank amongst Edinburgh top Shakermakers.

On 29 July 2025, global monitoring systems detected a large earthquake offshore of the Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia, and widespread tsunami warnings were issued across the Pacific region. With a magnitude of 8.8, it was all too easy to think back to the 9.0 to 9.1 magnitude event that devastated Japan in 2011, or the 9.2 to 9.3 magnitude event on Boxing Day in 2004. Thankfully, on this occasion, the impact is believed to be relatively small by comparison.

However, the Kamchatka event did reveal impact of a different nature. Almost as soon as news broke of the earthquake, tsunami warnings were issued and millions of people were told to evacuate across locations at risk, 2 million in Japan alone. This was the result of two decades of research on hazard mitigation following the Boxing Day earthquake in 2004, which claimed the lives of more than 220 000 people in one of the largest disasters, in terms of loss of life, in modern history.

Immediately after the Indian Ocean event in 2004, BGS scientists participated in responsive marine research expeditions that resulted in increased knowledge of sea-bed deformation resulting from the earthquake. Longer-term responses resulted in major advances in understanding earthquake tsunami mechanisms, which have further contributed to disaster risk reduction efforts.

Most significant, in terms of public safety, has been the installation of improved tsunami warnings for coastal communities. Tsunami early warning systems (TEWS) are based on identifying earthquake magnitudes (usually larger than magnitude 7 to 8) that could result in hazardous tsunamis. The Indian Ocean tsunami took two hours to reach the coasts of India, Sri Lanka and Thailand, where around 80 000 people lost their lives. Many of them could potentially have been saved if there had been an operational TEWS in place.

In the wake of the catastrophic 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami, further advancements were made in our understanding of tsunami mechanisms, which ultimately led to improved mitigation measures around the world.

Our knowledge base today to plan for and respond to tsunamis is far beyond anything considered possible before the turn of the century.

Following the devastating events of 2004, research has allowed us to be more prepared than ever before to mitigate the threat of this formidable phenomenon. This was highlighted during the Kamchatka earthquake and subsequent tsunamis. TEWS were activated, which led to the evacuation of millions to safety and has ultimately led to a relatively minimal impact being reported.

Prof David Tappin, BGS marine geologist and leading tsunami expert.

Whilst warning systems for earthquake tsunamis are now effectively implemented for major events, there is still the major challenge of designing warning systems for other tsunami mechanisms, such as landslides and volcanic eruptions. Hopefully, with new approaches potentially available through applications such as artificial intelligence, these will become a reality.

As a state of emergency is declared on the Greek island of Santorini, seismologists are increasingly turning to artificial intelligence technology to provide high-resolution images of the ongoing seismic activity, in a bid to enhance short-term forecasting accuracy.

Since the start of the crisis, a team from BGS comprising Margarita Segou, Brian Baptie, Rajat Choudhary, Wayne Shelley and Foteini Dervisi, has been employing machine learning algorithms to detect ten times as many earthquakes as standard techniques, with over 20000 tremors accurately predicted in the Santorini area alone since 1 December 2024. This approach is allowing geologists to identify for the first time small magnitude earthquakes that were previously undetected using standard approaches.

51ÁÔÆæ Seismologist Margarita Segou, who is leading the development of the groundbreaking research, says it has revolutionised the way scientists can learn from seismic activity and predict patterns.

This machine learning technique results in far richer data feeding into short-term forecasts, which can allow experts to track the evolution of events and better advise emergency services and at-risk communities.

Dr Margarita Segou, BGS Seismologist.

These algorithms allowed researchers to first note increased seismic activity across the Santorini region on 26 January 2025. In comparison, standard detection schemes did not register the same increase until 31 January and only picked up around 2000 seismic events in the Santorini area; ten times less than the new approach has detected.

Dr Segou says it is the ability to combine different sources of information more quickly that is at the heart of the advancement.

Through strong international partnerships, we can reprocess past and present data through machine learning and gain a new and priceless insight into the seismic activity in Santorini in previous phases of unrest and its links to the volcanic system.

Dr Margarita Segou.

Santorini is located on the Hellenic volcanic arc at the convergence of the African plate and the Eurasian plate, at a complex tectonic boundary. Currently, seismic events around the island show that seismicity bursts occur almost twice a day, with the tremors lasting for one to two hours.

Dr Segou adds the data is revealing some unique features.

We have evidence that this is fluid-driven, swarm-type seismicity that comes in pulses. This is not unheard of in other volcanic regions; however, this time it is evolving on top of active faults that complicate the expression of seismicity.

It is easy to get a disconnected story when we just look at moderate magnitude seismic events. It is only when we investigate the smaller magnitude events that occur between that we learn of the hidden mechanisms that take place between the large earthquakes.

It is critical that we track whether those pulses become more frequent and how they migrate in space and depth. So far, the largest quake in this swarm has been a 5.2 magnitude.

Dr Margarita Segou.

Contact

For more information, please contact 51ÁÔÆæ press (bgspress@bgs.ac.uk) or call 07790 607 010.

On Boxing Day, 26 December 2004, a magnitude 9.2 to 9.3 earthquake struck off the west coast of northern Sumatra in Indonesia. It triggered a tsunami with waves reaching 30 m in height that claimed the lives of more than 220 000 people in one of the largest disasters, in terms of loss of life, in modern history. Local residents and tourists in countries including Thailand, Sri Lanka and India would all face a fight for survival as giant walls of water swept through coastal communities and far inland.

Known by the scientific community as the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake, we now know more about the underlying reasons that led to the disaster: the unexpected occurrence of a gigantic earthquake in the region, the lack of a tsunami warning system, and a lack of awareness amongst local inhabitants and visitors about the hazard and how to respond.

There have been other devastating tsunami events over the past 30 years, aside from the Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake, including in Papua New Guinea in 1998 and the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 2011. The tsunami events of 1998, 2004 and 2011 were catastrophic and it seems that we are now living in an ‘age of tsunamis’. The events have resulted in better understanding of tsunami mechanisms and improved mitigation measures around the world.

Immediately after the 2004 event, the Hyogo Framework of Action for 2005 to 2015 was adopted at the World Disaster Reduction Conference and later endorsed by the UN General Assembly. It was created for building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters, and consists of five action items:

• make disaster risk reduction a national and local priority
• identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning
• use knowledge, innovation and education to build understanding and awareness
• reduce risk factors
• be prepared and ready to act

Immediately after the Indian Ocean event, BGS scientists participated in responsive marine research expeditions that resulted in increased knowledge of sea-bed deformation resulting from the earthquake. Of particular importance was whether submarine landslides triggered by the earthquake could have contributed to the tsunami. The surprising result was that, despite the massive earthquake magnitude, the landslides identified were numerous but small, so did not contribute to the tsunami.

Longer-term responses to the Indian Ocean event have resulted in major advances in understanding earthquake tsunami mechanisms, which have further contributed to disaster risk reduction efforts. Most important was improved tsunami warnings for coastal communities. Before 2004, the only tsunami early warning system (TEWS) was in the Pacific Ocean. TEWS are based on identifying earthquake magnitudes (usually larger than magnitude 7 to 8) than could result in hazardous tsunamis. With the Indian Ocean tsunami, around 80 000 people died along the coasts of India, Sri Lanka and Thailand that could have been saved if there was an operational TEWS, because the tsunami took two hours to reach these locations.

The 2004 event resulted in the establishment of TEWS in the Indian and Atlantic oceans and the Mediterranean and Caribbean seas. These can now identify earthquakes that could generate hazardous tsunamis and provide warnings to local coastal populations, resulting in evacuation from threatened locations.

Other practical developments in earthquake and tsunami mitigation include:

• early detection of potentially or tsunami generating earthquakes
• identification of tsunami magnitudes and their likely impacts
• more accurate modelling of different tsunami mechanisms, such as earthquakes and submarine landslides
• improved instrumental measurements of offshore and deep-ocean tsunamis
• global studies of recurrence intervals of large earthquakes in subduction zones, enabling improved statistical analysis of past events, better assessments of probable maximum size and long-term forecasting of great subduction zone earthquakes

Our knowledge base today, to plan and respond to tsunamis, is far beyond anything considered possible 30 years ago. Devastating tsunami events are, fortunately, quite rare, but as the last few decades have proved, can happen with devastating consequences.

The 20th anniversary of the Boxing Day Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami is critically important for both honouring the victims of this tragedy and reminding ourselves that it will happen again in the future. Thanks to research undertaken over last twenty years, we are now more prepared than ever before to mitigate the threat of this formidable phenomenon.

Prof David Tappin, lead marine tsunami expert at BGS.