cmic Archives - 51ÁÔÆæ /tag/cmic/ World-leading geological solutions Wed, 02 Sep 2026 07:51:57 +0000 en-GB hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=7.1.1 /wp-content/uploads/2020/03/cropped-BGS-favicon-logo-32x32.png cmic Archives - 51ÁÔÆæ /tag/cmic/ 32 32 Demand for data centres presents challenges and opportunities for UK critical mineral supply chains /news/demand-for-data-centres-presents-challenges-and-opportunities-for-uk-critical-mineral-supply-chains/ Wed, 02 Sep 2026 07:46:54 +0000 /?p=125411 Government-backed research finds that vulnerabilities in raw material supply chains must be addressed to secure the critical minerals needed to expand the UK digital infrastructure and boost economic growth.

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Critical minerals are essential to the UK economy, national security, and clean energy transition. Surging demand for such materials, driven by the UK ambition to become a global leader in digital technologies, will place unprecedented pressure on already vulnerable global supply chains. A (CMIC) presents both the opportunities for innovation-led economic growth and the challenges associated with securing the materials required for data centres, artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computing.

Data centres are now recognised as critical national infrastructure in the UK, with more than 90 new facilities planned by 2030, while, quantum technologies and AI have been identified as strategically important technologies. Meeting increasing demand for such digital services requires a growing range of critical minerals and high-purity materials. The growth of these technologies will increase demand for critical minerals including copper, aluminium, rare earth elements and battery materials (such as lithium and cobalt) used in digital technology components and backup power systems. Quantum technologies also require some critical minerals that are more rarely discussed, including niobium, hafnium, bismuth, high-purity silicon and other raw materials such as helium.

CMIC is hosted by the 51ÁÔÆæ (BGS) and funded by the Department for Business, Innovation, Science & Technology (DBIST). This report highlights the value of data centres, AI and quantum computing to the UK economy and future economic growth and emphasises the importance of critical minerals in their development. The global trade routes that feed the UK with many of the necessary raw materials for cutting-edge technologies are still immature and underdeveloped, relying on exports from a small group of countries. Additionally, many critical minerals are only produced as by-products from the mining and refining of other commodities, such as copper and aluminium, so their production can be affected by the market swings for those major metals. Collectively, these factors can render vital supply chains unresponsive to demand and vulnerable to geopolitical factors.

The report highlights several ways to strengthen resilience, including international partnerships, supply chain diversification and targeted development of domestic capabilities. There are many opportunities for the UK, which should capitalise on its potential to mine, refine, purify and recycle some critical minerals. Nonetheless, international collaboration and strategic partnerships remain essential. In the future, digital technologies will face increasing competition for critical minerals from other sectors that we rely on for our energy, transportation, home and work lives, defence and health care, and we may need to prioritise how our critical mineral supplies are used. The report lead author, BGS Minerals geoscientist Dr Holly Elliott, believes that the need to better understand and forecast the nation mineral supply requirements has never been greater and is central to delivering the country ambitions.

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“While some of the materials used in digital technologies have highly concentrated supply chains, there are also opportunities to improve resilience through innovation, international collaboration, diversification of supply and the development of specialist capabilities where the UK already has strengths.

“The UK has already invested in the development of a skilled domestic workforce and created growth zones but, to become a centre of excellence within the digital revolution, we must identify potential bottlenecks and vulnerabilities in the critical mineral supply for the decades to come, and act now.â€

Dr Holly Elliott, BGS minerals geoscientist

Many of the materials required for digital technologies, such as lithium, cobalt and graphite, are experiencing significant growth in demand and intensifying competition between key sectors, including low-carbon technologies, aerospace, defence and advanced manufacturing. These are all expected to experience their own growth surges in the near future, while the wider adoption of quantum computing is currently an unknown, but likely to be a significant, factor.

Batteries sit at the heart of many of these technologies, with data centres requiring huge, grid-scale batteries to ensure an uninterruptible energy supply in the event of a disruption to mains power. The energy requirements of these facilities is considerable. Based on the findings of a , a 1 GW data centre running continuously could use as much power as up to 3.2 million UK households over the course of a year. The that the UK will need up to 6 GW of AI-capable data centre capacity by 2030, highlighting the true scale of the demand for battery raw materials.

The UK Government will increasingly face the challenge of prioritising how much of the available critical mineral supply will be directed toward the development of AI technologies and data centres while also nurturing fledgling industries such as quantum computing.

Dr Elliott says diversification will be essential to securing reliable and sustainable supplies of critical minerals.

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“Whilst the UK has the potential to develop domestic supplies of certain critical minerals, it is unlikely to achieve self-reliance and cannot become a specialist in all parts of the supply chain.

“Access to global supply chains, international collaboration and strategic partnerships therefore remain vital; the opportunity best lies in collaboration and strategic partnerships to offset the risk posed by geopolitical uncertainty.â€

Dr Holly Elliott

The report also highlights opportunities for the UK to build on existing strengths in semiconductor technologies, photonics, cryogenics, quantum technologies and high-purity materials. Alongside these established capabilities, opportunities will emerge to develop domestic recycling and secondary supply chains as demand for digital technologies continues to grow.

In terms of primary supply, various prospective UK projects are likely to become more economically viable with the increase in demand, such as:

  • lithium resources in Cornwall
  • tungsten in Devon
  • graphite in Northern Ireland
  • nickel, vanadium and the platinum group metals in Scotland

However, Dr Holly Elliott warns that ambition does need to be balanced against realistic understandings of how these supply chains operate.

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“Geologically speaking, the Earth is not short of minerals. Scarcity is typically driven by a combination of factors, such as geopolitical access, the economic viability of extraction, and the technological constraints around our ability to refine and process them.

“History suggests that restricted supply but increasing demand creates market opportunities and that supply chains eventually catch up with demand but, in the case of minerals, this can take decades.â€

Dr Holly Elliott

As such, enhanced access to global supply chains, international collaboration and strategic partnerships will be vital in the immediate future, offsetting the risk posed by geopolitical uncertainty. Over the longer term, investment that builds on the UK existing technological strengths and development of regions with domestic prospectivity can further strengthen the UK position as the demand for critical minerals intensifies.

Report recommendations

In summary the report recommendations include:

  • Isotopic purification and high-purity materials: the UK can build on its strong expertise in isotopic purification to increase domestic commercial production, supporting global diversification and reducing supply risks
  • Expand downstream manufacturing capabilities: broadening established industries (including cryogenics, photonics and semiconductors) from design into manufacturing could reduce the UK reliance on imported components
  • Critical minerals and processing capacity: the UK should assess viable opportunities in the domestic critical mineral supply chain, including extraction and value-added processing where potential exists
  • Quantum-enabling materials: developing domestic capabilities in non-linear materials and crystals would mitigate trade interventions and strengthen supply resilience
  • Recycling and secondary supply: developing recycling and processing hubs for electronic waste components would help to establish a secondary supply of the materials for which the UK has limited domestic extraction potential
  • Industrial support and enabling environment: there may be a role for targeted support mechanisms to encourage the development or expansion of domestic facilities for primary production, materials refining, isotopic purification and secondary material recovery
  • Data, demand visibility and supply chain mapping: encouraging UK companies to report quantified material requirements for key technologies, such as data centres and batteries, would support improved modelling of future demand under different technology adoption and growth trajectories
  • Workforce and skills development: further support for workforce development in emerging sectors such as quantum computing would help address shortages in specialist and technical roles spanning engineering, computer science and physics


The full report, ‘’, is available on the CMIC website.

This research was funded by the Department for Business, Innovation, Science and Technology as part of the 2025 to 2026 work programme for CMIC.

For more information, please contact 51ÁÔÆæ press (bgspress@bgs.ac.uk) or call 07790 607 010.

About the 51ÁÔÆæ (BGS)

The 51ÁÔÆæ is a world-leading geological survey and global geoscience organisation, focused on public-good science for government and research to understand earth and environmental processes.

 

We are the UK premier provider of objective, impartial and authoritative geoscientific data, information and knowledge to help society to use its natural resources responsibly, manage environmental change and build resilience capabilities.

From resource management and environmental protection to natural hazard mitigation and climate change adaptation, our work underpins many of the key challenges and opportunities facing the UK today.

Department for Business, Innovation, Science and Technology (BIST), the UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre (CMIC) is hosted by the 51ÁÔÆæ.

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UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre makes recommendations for the next UK criticality assessment /news/uk-critical-minerals-intelligence-centre-makes-recommendations-for-the-next-uk-criticality-assessment/ Wed, 01 Jul 2026 08:48:19 +0000 /?p=124299 CMIC has outlined the enhancements made to the next assessment update to ensure it is better tailored to the structure of the UK economy.

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Critical mineralsunderpin the UK economy, technology, energytransitionand industrial resilience. Criticality assessments are widely used to identify the commodities with the highest risk of supply disruption and associated economic impacts. The resulting lists of ‘critical minerals’ increasingly guide national and regional strategies for investment, industrial development and supply-chain resilience.

In 2024, the UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre (CMIC), hosted by BGS, published its updated UK Criticality Assessment, supported by an improved and more transparent methodology. This assessment used available data covering the last five to ten years and was complemented by several foresight studies on key decarbonisation technologies and the UK demand for critical raw materials up to 2050.

, released by CMIC, evaluates a series of methodological enhancements through improved quantification of economic importance, including trade restrictions and expanded considerations for environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria. The report has been designed to help tailor futureUK criticality assessmentsto the structure of the UK economy, its tradeprofileand strategic industrial sectors more closely.

The report makes five recommendations that should be implemented into the next UK criticality assessment to add further value and benefit:

  • better tracking of critical raw materials’ market stability and transparency
  • three new indicators to improve measurement of the importance of materials to the UK economy and their flow through the whole domestic supply chain
  • accounting for geopolitical risk in trade by considering any interventionist history of trading partners
  • expansion of the supply-chain monitoring capacity to the midstream sector
  • addition of climate vulnerability to the ESG indicator

Together, these enhancements will deliver a more comprehensive and policy-relevant understanding of criticality, particularlybyimproving the visibility of midstream supply-chain risks. Forimport-reliant nationsliketheUKthat have limited upstreamproduction,accuratetracking of intermediate and manufactured product flows is essential to understanding true supply dependencies andpoints ofintervention.

The new indicators will be rigorously tested through sensitivity analyses in the next assessment cycle, including retrospective evaluation against 2024 results.

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Thisreport strengthens theUKcritically assessmentbyintegrating market dynamics, supply-chain interdependencies, geopoliticalrisksand climate vulnerabilities through multiple complementary indicators. Material flow characterisation strengthens trade-based indicators, while the integration of climate vulnerability into the ESG criteria addresses a critical gap with minimal methodological disruption.Corporate concentrationand production forecasting were also evaluated and deemed tooffer the best valuefor targeted,deep-diveanalysesand potential stress-testing of industry supply chains,but data limitationsprevent systematic application in criticality assessments.

Theresult is a moregranular, evidence-basedunderstanding of howdifferent materialsexhibit criticality,whetherthroughmarket opacity, supply-chain centrality, geopolitical concentration, orclimate exposure,enabling tailored intervention strategies matched to specific material risk profiles rather than one-size-fits-all approaches.

Dr Pierre Josso, deputy director of CMIC.

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From archive to discovery: historical mineral reports support gold exploration in Scotland /news/historical-mineral-reports-support-gold-exploration-in-scotland/ Thu, 25 Jun 2026 09:14:50 +0000 /?p=124213 Digitised geological records show potential to unlock untapped mineral resources in Ardlochan, Argyllshire.

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The Mineral Exploration and Investment Grants Act 1972 (MEIGA) provided a stimulus for mineral exploration in the UK. Under the Act, the Government’s Department of Trade and Industry gave grants for mineral exploration for non-ferrous metals, fluorspar, barium minerals and potash. Compiled largely during the 1970s and 1980s, reports detailing the exploration undertaken contain a rich variety of information, including geological mapping, soil and stream sediment geochemistry, geophysical surveys, drillcore logs and assay data.

Previously, these ‘MEIGA’ reports were only available to view in hard copy through BGS National Geoscience Data Centre (NGDC). In 2023, a digitisation programme, carried out in collaboration with the UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre (CMIC), released an initial batch of over 200 . A further release of digitised reports this year (2026) has meant that an additional 660 reports have been added to the accessible collection, ensuring that data collected over forty years ago is openly available and newly relevant for identifying critical and precious metal resource potential within the UK.

The significance of this release is already being demonstrated in the Ardlochan area of south-west Scotland. At the end of 2025, completed a in the area, which discovered a large, vertical tube of broken rock (a ‘breccia pipe’ system) that was at least 140 m wide and rich in gold. The company then drew on MEIGA materials, originally generated by exploration companies Noranda Mining Limited and Phelps Dodge in the 1970s and 1980s, to complement its own surveys and recent drilling in order to target other sites of interest.

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The MEIGA dataset for Ardlochan is already playing a key role in refining a new generation of exploration targets, especially those associated with gold-rich porphyry–breccia systems. A major advantage of the datasets is that they capture Ardlochan at a time when the area was largely unforested. This allowed for far more detailed bedrock mapping than is possible today and provides a clearer geological framework from which to work.

Just as importantly, the reports offer insight into the exploration concepts and decision making used by major operators in the 1970s and 1980s. These companies invested heavily in systematic regional work, identifying features and prospects that were subsequently forgotten as corporate priorities shifted. Integrating these historic insights with modern techniques is enabling us to rebuild the geological story of Ardlochan and accelerate target development with a level of confidence that would not otherwise be possible.

Calum Lyell, Western Gold Exploration.

Exploration can be very expensive and uncertain, often requiring companies to repeat baseline surveys to establish context. By providing open access to MEIGA reports, BGS (through CMIC and the NGDC) is helping to reduce duplicate efforts, enabling more targeted investment. For smaller firms, this pre-competitive data supports innovation and lowers barriers to entry.

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The digitisation of BGS archive documents is a major effort in valorising legacy datasets that can have a major impact at minimal cost for the exploration sector. We are continuously working towards refining accessibility to these documents, notably applying various machine learning methods to automate the extraction of data contained in these pages to make them publicly available, as well as developing large language models for personalised, one-to-one interaction with the archived volumes.

Pierre Josso, deputy director, CMIC.

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For the National Geoscience Data Centre, the renewed impact of the MEIGA archive demonstrates exactly why long‑term stewardship of geoscience data matters. Historic materials only realise their full value when they are preserved, digitised and made accessible. Funding the systematic scanning of these legacy collections is essential not only to safeguard the record, but also to ensure that insights captured decades ago can actively inform modern exploration, reduce duplication of effort and unlock new scientific and economic opportunities. The success at Ardlochan shows that well‑curated archives don’t just tell the story of past work; they directly enable the discoveries of today.

Alison Steven, data operations and governance lead, NGDC at BGS.

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Shortage of end-of-life materials presents challenge to UK critical minerals security /news/shortage-of-end-of-life-materials-presents-challenge-to-uk-critical-minerals-security/ Wed, 17 Jun 2026 06:11:43 +0000 /?p=124132 A new report by the UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre reveals insufficient end-of-life material stocks present a supply risk over the coming decade, but offer significant long-term potential to meet critical mineral demand through recycling.

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Demand for critical minerals is rapidly increasing in response to the global transition to net zero, with UK demand for lithium predicted to quadruple by 2050. To secure future supply, the UK has set ambitious recycling targets for critical minerals.

New analysis from the , hosted by the 51ÁÔÆæ (BGS), provides a detailed assessment of the UK future demand and secondary supply availability for the key technology metals that are required for green energy technologies and electric transportation.

By 2035, the Government aims to meet 20 per cent of annual critical mineral demand through , also known as secondary supply or the circular economy. However, the new research also highlights that, within this timeframe, only a small number of critical minerals used in photovoltaic technologies are expected to be found in sufficient quantities to theoretically reach or exceed this ambition. The prospects improve dramatically, however, when the timescale is extended out to 2050, as increasing availability of end-of-life material is forecast to meet or exceed domestic demand for several critical minerals.

The assessment found that, between 2040 and 2050, ‘secondary’ raw material availability could provide:

  • more than 60 per cent of the cumulative demand for battery metals
  • more than 85 per cent of the cumulative demand for the rare earth elements (REEs) used in magnets (neodymium, praseodymium and dysprosium)
  • more than 90 per cent of the cumulative demand for silver and 75 per cent for tin used in photovoltaics (solar panels)

Although secondary supply has the potential to offset primary demand after 2040, the rapid growth of electric vehicles, wind turbines and photovoltaics means that, in the short term, primary supply (that is extracted directly from the ground) will remain essential to meet growth sectors, fill supply gaps and account for unavoidable material losses or non-recovery. This includes continued reliance on imports of lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, copper and REEs, and highlights the importance of supply chain diversification, responsible sourcing and strategic international partnerships. 

The report highlights that investment, capacity building, development of reverse supply chains and further data supporting the circular economy will be required to support the UK transition toward secure, resilient supplies of critical minerals and technology metals and to realise the long-term supply potential available through recovery and recycling.

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This studydemonstratesthat secondary supply of technology metals has the potential to become amajor contributor to UK material security. Our research shows that several elements will approach or exceed anticipated domesticdemandbymid-century.

However, realising this potential will depend on several factors, including clear policy direction on technology metals recovery, investment in recycling and refining infrastructure and the development of integrated reverse supply chains and skilled labour.

Primary supply will remain essential but, withtimelyand coordinated action, the UK can build a more resilient,circularand securecritical materialssystem capable of supporting its2050net zeroambitions.

Dr Evi Petavratzi, principal mineral commodity expert at BGS.

The report ‘’ is available to download from the UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre website.

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51ÁÔÆæ welcomes publication of the UK Critical Minerals Strategy /news/bgs-welcomes-publication-of-the-uk-critical-minerals-strategy/ Sun, 23 Nov 2025 07:51:48 +0000 /?p=120269 A clear strategic vision for the UK is crucial to secure the country long-term critical mineral supply chains and drive forward the Government economic growth agenda.

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Today (23 November 2025), the UK Government published its for the UK. The strategy recognises the UK need to further develop links with international partners, increase domestic production where feasible and invest in the circular economy. This strategy provides a tangible blueprint for these ambitions – now accurate, real-time minerals data will be essential in supporting the Government in its objectives.

The UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre (CMIC), hosted by the 51ÁÔÆæ (BGS), launched in 2022 with support from the Department of Business and Trade. CMIC informs UK decision makers to enable the securing of adequate, timely and sustainable supplies of critical minerals. This will ensure that the UK can transition its economy in the coming decades to meet challenges such as achieving net zero emissions and realising the Government industrial strategy and economic growth agenda.

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The geopolitical picture in 2025 demonstrates a complex, unpredictable and interconnected world. Establishing secure supply chains of critical and growth minerals to achieve the UK economic aspirations has never been more important. The country ambitions in relation to the energy transition, economic growth, security and digital agendas, are directly connected to reliable access to these resources.

Dr Gavin Mudd of BGS and director of the UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre (CMIC)

Almost all critical minerals are currently imported, meaning it is important to understand the complex global supply chains that deliver them. CMIC’s mission is to analyse those supply chains and provide impartial and objective advice that helps the UK secure sustainable supplies of critical minerals for its various industries. In 2024, CMIC UK Criticality Assessment revealed the vulnerability of the UK economy to supply disruption for specific minerals. The analysis was designed to support policymakers in building economic resilience and securing the minerals that are important to the country growth aspirations and national security. CMIC has played a crucial role in informing this new Government strategy.

If you would like to speak to a member of the BGS media team about this story or request an interview with one of our geologists, please use the contacts below:

Telephone: +44 (0)7790 607 010.
(Please do not text this number. We accept calls or email only.)

Email: bgspress@bgs.ac.uk

About the 51ÁÔÆæ (BGS)

The 51ÁÔÆæ is a world-leading geological survey and global geoscience organisation, focused on public-good science for government and research to understand earth and environmental processes.

We are the UK premier provider of objective, impartial and authoritative geoscientific data, information and knowledge to help society to use its natural resources responsibly, manage environmental change and build resilience capabilities.

About the UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre

CMIC aims to support the UK in securing the adequate and timely supply of the minerals and metals it requires to ensure the success of the net zero transition, mitigate risks to national security, deliver economic prosperity and create opportunities for UK businesses in critical mineral supply chains domestically and internationally. It will provide decision makers in Government and industry with independent, robust, up-to-date and future-orientated analysis and intelligence to manage the dynamic risks associated with the supply and demand of critical minerals.

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Future projections for mineral demand highlight vulnerabilities in UK supply chain /news/future-projections-for-mineral-demand-highlight-vulnerabilities-in-uk-supply-chain/ Thu, 13 Mar 2025 08:30:27 +0000 /?p=116535 New Government-commissioned studies reveal that the UK may require as much as 40 per cent of the global lithium supply to meet anticipated demand by 2030.

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Hosted by BGS, the UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre (CMIC) has quantified UK demand requirements and global supply challenges up to 2050 for 36 materials important to nine technologies essential to decarbonisation and the energy transition:

• batteries
• electrolysers
• fuel cells
• grid infrastructure
• heat pumps
• nuclear
• photovoltaics
• traction motors
• wind turbines

This has highlighted the vulnerability of the UK in competing for a secure and reliable supply of critical resources.

The newly released foresight studies project that, by 2030, the UK is expected to require between 15 and 40 per cent of current global lithium production and between 10 and 29 per cent of current global graphite production. Compared to 2020 levels, UK demand in 2030 for lithium is expected to increase by between 12 and 45 times the current demand, while graphite demand is projected to grow by between 34 and 43 times. Both materials are essential for rechargeable lithium-ion batteries, which power electric vehicles, consumer electronics and energy storage systems.

Annual UK demand as a percentage of global production for lithium, shown as the minimum (dark shade) and maximum (light shade) demand of the National Grid scenarios. Global production figures are the five-year average (2017 to 2021) from the BGS World Mineral Statistics Database. BGS © 51ÁÔÆæ 2025.
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Annual UK demand as a percentage of global production for lithium, shown as the minimum (dark shade) and maximum (light shade) demand of the . Global production figures are the five-year average (2017 to 2021) from the . BGS © 51ÁÔÆæ 2025.

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Ensuring a secure and stable supply for these materials presents a major challenge. To meet the global demand forecasted by the International Energy Agency, lithium supply alone would need to increase by 32 times by 2030, highlighting the pressure on supply chains and the urgency for secure, diversified, resilient and responsible supply.

The foresight studies, commissioned by the Department for Business & Trade, identified risks that could see bottlenecks in material supply due to limited UK-based supply chains, a reliance on international markets and growing global competition, all of which could have a detrimental impact on the economy.

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The approach taken to quantify demand for specific technologies, while also providing a comprehensive overview across various decarbonisation technologies, is unique. This methodology enables the UK to make strategic decisions to enhance the security of the supply chains these technologies depend on.

Dr Evi Petavratzi, foresight study lead at CMIC.

Batteries have been identified as the decarbonisation technology that will see the fastest demand growth in the UK, which will have a knock-on-effect on the amount of materials, including graphite, nickel, lithium, cobalt and manganese, needed to meet this demand. Heat pumps, traction motors and wind turbines will drive demand for copper and rare earth elements (REEs). UK demand for REEs is expected to peak around 2030, before stabilising at approximately 5 per cent of current global supply by 2040, which underscores the critical need for new supply streams to be operational by 2030.

The can be found on the CMIC website, as can the UK Critical Minerals Assessment, which was released in November 2024.

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Critical Mineral Intelligence Centre hosts second conference /news/critical-mineral-intelligence-centre-hosts-second-conference/ Fri, 28 Feb 2025 12:33:19 +0000 /?p=116301 The Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre conference took place at BGS headquarters in Keyworth, Nottinghamshire.

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Hosted by BGS and supported by the Department for Business & Trade (DBT), the UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre (CMIC) delivers authoritative, impartial and independent, up-to-date data, information and analysis about critical minerals for the UK’s economy.

CMIC second conference, which took place on Wednesday 26 February 2025, showcased and provided the opportunity to discuss the research and analysis that CMIC has delivered. The 2025 UK was one of the main topics of the event. The report builds on robust, CMIC-developed methodology and was released at the end of 2024. Thirty-four minerals are classified as critical, providing foundations for future UK policy and investment, as well as for foresight studies highlighting vulnerabilities in the supply chains of minerals critical to the growth of decarbonisation technologies in the UK to 2050.

Dr Karen Hanghøj, BGS Director, opened the conference by providing an overview of current supply risks for critical minerals and the role BGS and its wider minerals research can play.

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The supply of minerals is essential to our economy and society and security of supply has never been more important. The work of CMIC and the wider BGS is important in addressing many of the challenges that we currently face. Through our role hosting CMIC, we continue to build on and expand our legacy expertise and provide impartial knowledge, data and research to Government and industry.

Dr Karen Hanghøj, BGS Director.

Sarah Jones MP, Minister of State for Industry at DBT, then provided a virtual address, acknowledging the substantial increase in the supply of critical minerals required to meet the growing demand.

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This second CMIC conference is a great opportunity to reflect on the research released since the first conference in 2023. Both criticality assessments and foresight studies play important roles in understanding supply risk and in advising industry and Government. We understand which minerals are critical and, looking ahead, evaluate to what extent the UK can meet the demand needed for economic growth, decarbonisation and national security.

Dr Gavin Mudd, CMIC Director.

Dr Pierre Josso, deputy director at CMIC, presented key findings from the UK 2024 criticality assessment. Dr Evi Petavratzi, senior mineral commodity expert at BGS, looked ahead to the UK future as she spoke about the outcomes of the CMIC foresight studies. The foresight studies estimate which materials will be required by decarbonisation technologies to meet the UK net zero goals and highlight the challenges faced in meeting demand. An expert panel discussion around foresight studies capped the morning agenda.

In the afternoon there were two expert panels: the first discussed the UK critical minerals strategy and policy, whilst the second discussed the future of CMIC. Simon Thompson, BGS Board member, then brought the conference to a close, reinforcing the great value that CMIC research work brings to the UK Government and policymaking around critical minerals.

The UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre (CMIC) supports the UK in securing adequate, timely and sustainable supplies of the minerals and metals it requires to transition its economy in the coming decades to net zero emissions.

Led by BGS with support from the Department for Business & Trade (DBT), we work together with universities and private and public sector partners to gather and analyse intelligence on the supply and demand of critical minerals, their global value chains and use by UK industry. Our aim is to guide decision making by Government and industry to mitigate risks to supply security, helping to deliver economic prosperity and create opportunities for UK businesses in critical mineral supply chains, domestically and internationally.

The Department for Business & Trade (DBT) unifies what was the Department for International Trade and the business-facing parts of what was the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS).

It brings sector, market and regulation experts together with world-class trade negotiators and business-support teams across the UK and overseas. This is to make the UK the best place to start and grow a company,helping create the business growth that contributes to better jobs and higher wages and living standards.

Relative topics

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The challenge of assessing the UK economy dependence on mineral supply /news/the-challenge-of-assessing-the-uk-mineral-supply/ Thu, 28 Nov 2024 08:13:40 +0000 /?p=115100 Critical, essential, or just plain important? Dr Gavin Mudd, director of the Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre, discusses the findings and new methodology featured in the 2024 UK Criticality Assessment.

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The is out.

Commissioned by the Department for Business and Trade (DBT) ahead of the launch of their new Critical Minerals Strategy in 2025, the report is intended to evaluate the risk of disruption to the supply of minerals of key economic importance.

The outcome may not be one that everyone expected. It may even raise some eyebrows, as such assessments have done elsewhere in the world, and it will hopefully spark further scientific and policy discussion. I certainly hope it does.

Across the world, industry groups and active lobbies have championed the introduction of a particular material to such criticality lists, perceiving perhaps the ‘critical’ designation as a mark of prestige or privilege within an economy. Some have called on scientists to change their findings, to varying levels of success.

Our assessment identifies copper as not critical. This will likely, and understandably, be the focus of much attention — much as its omission in the 2023 USA assessment was. In similar lists focused on economies across the EU, Japan, India, China, Canada and now the USA, copper is identified as critical. Under the methodology within our report, the material did not meet the necessary threshold, as with Australia latest assessment.

Photo of chalcopyrite - one of the prominent copper-bearing minerals.
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Chalcopyrite, one of the primary copper-bearing minerals. BGS © 51ÁÔÆæ.

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This is why it is important to understand the difference in definition between ‘essential’, ‘important’ and ‘critical’. The commodities evaluated as part of this assessment were selected precisely because of their significant importance to the UK economy, but for a mineral to be ‘critical’ it must be both important and subject to a significant supply risk.

The UK is reliant on international supply for most of the 82 assessed materials at the heart of this report, with 49 of them predominately provided through imports. The competition for certain minerals is increasing by the day: for example, global demand for lithium is expected to increase more than tenfold by 2050 to support the net zero energy transition.

This assessment is built on robust data. It is a snapshot of the UK present need, our current supply chains, and demand drive estimated by consumption and existing policy. This is a steadfast, impartial and empirical point from which decision makers can progress conversations around our future needs. 

I see criticality as an ever-changing status in response to conditions. The ebb and flow of technological advancements, consumer demand, market forces, the drive for renewable energy sources and the geopolitical environment: all play a role in shaping demand and increasing the risks around supply.

Copper is an important and essential mineral to the UK economy. It has diversified uses, including power and electricity, telecommunications and digital technologies, as well as chemicals and infrastructure. Every home, office, factory and vehicle across the UK draws value from the use of copper every day. However, the 2024 UK Criticality Assessment aims to identify the minerals for which the UK economy is currently most vulnerable. In simple terms, this means those minerals that have a higher risk of supply disruption and could prompt significant economic upheaval for the UK should a disruption occur.

Against that measure, based on the scientific data used in our report, copper is not critical. Through available data, projections of refined copper production can be judged likely to meet copper demand for the relevant policies and announced pledges scenarios.

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The new UK Criticality Assessment’s criticality matrix. BGS © 51ÁÔÆæ.

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This assessment recognises that concerns around the capacity to increase global copper mine supply may lead to an increased global supply risk and, in turn, result in copper becoming critical in the future. When the data shows this point is reached, such assessments will reflect it. The dynamic nature of criticality also mean we need other types of assessments and studies, for example forecasting studies for certain minerals, and CMIC is already planning several of these.

This report lives and dies by its adherence to a methodology that is impartial. In my eyes, it is a good thing that there appears a conscious effort to meet the global demand for copper. This is an indication that the global supply chain currently produces this essential material with a sound balance between supply and demand. With the UK seeking to enhance the National Grid to accommodate a higher proportion of renewable energy and electric vehicle charging capability, this country is clearly going to need a lot of it. 

To meet global net zero greenhouse gas emission targets by 2050, we will need to increase copper mine supply by about 2 per cent above existing trends. Whilst this does not sound like much, it is recognised that there are challenges faced by the copper sector such as declining ore grades, water resources issues (for example, scarcity), and the increasing difficulty of developing large new copper projects.

This assessment is intended to stimulate discussion and allow us as a country to continue to plan effectively for the future of our economy and its place within an increasingly sophisticated and interconnected global supply chain. That discussion should be vigorous and impassioned; disagreement is an inevitable outcome. I look forward to taking part in such conversations.

I would invite all to see real success in terms of what the next criticality assessment might contain. A shorter list will be a clear indication that the UK has been successful in mitigating supply risk.

The post The challenge of assessing the UK economy dependence on mineral supply appeared first on 51ÁÔÆæ.

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