Today (23 November 2025), the UK Government published its for the UK. The strategy recognises the UK need to further develop links with international partners, increase domestic production where feasible and invest in the circular economy. This strategy provides a tangible blueprint for these ambitions – now accurate, real-time minerals data will be essential in supporting the Government in its objectives.

The UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre (CMIC), hosted by the 51ÁÔÆæ (BGS), launched in 2022 with support from the Department of Business and Trade. CMIC informs UK decision makers to enable the securing of adequate, timely and sustainable supplies of critical minerals. This will ensure that the UK can transition its economy in the coming decades to meet challenges such as achieving net zero emissions and realising the Government industrial strategy and economic growth agenda.

The geopolitical picture in 2025 demonstrates a complex, unpredictable and interconnected world. Establishing secure supply chains of critical and growth minerals to achieve the UK economic aspirations has never been more important. The country ambitions in relation to the energy transition, economic growth, security and digital agendas, are directly connected to reliable access to these resources.

Dr Gavin Mudd of BGS and director of the UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre (CMIC)

Almost all critical minerals are currently imported, meaning it is important to understand the complex global supply chains that deliver them. CMIC’s mission is to analyse those supply chains and provide impartial and objective advice that helps the UK secure sustainable supplies of critical minerals for its various industries. In 2024, CMIC UK Criticality Assessment revealed the vulnerability of the UK economy to supply disruption for specific minerals. The analysis was designed to support policymakers in building economic resilience and securing the minerals that are important to the country growth aspirations and national security. CMIC has played a crucial role in informing this new Government strategy.

Hosted by BGS, the UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre (CMIC) has quantified UK demand requirements and global supply challenges up to 2050 for 36 materials important to nine technologies essential to decarbonisation and the energy transition:

• batteries
• electrolysers
• fuel cells
• grid infrastructure
• heat pumps
• nuclear
• photovoltaics
• traction motors
• wind turbines

This has highlighted the vulnerability of the UK in competing for a secure and reliable supply of critical resources.

The newly released foresight studies project that, by 2030, the UK is expected to require between 15 and 40 per cent of current global lithium production and between 10 and 29 per cent of current global graphite production. Compared to 2020 levels, UK demand in 2030 for lithium is expected to increase by between 12 and 45 times the current demand, while graphite demand is projected to grow by between 34 and 43 times. Both materials are essential for rechargeable lithium-ion batteries, which power electric vehicles, consumer electronics and energy storage systems.

Ensuring a secure and stable supply for these materials presents a major challenge. To meet the global demand forecasted by the International Energy Agency, lithium supply alone would need to increase by 32 times by 2030, highlighting the pressure on supply chains and the urgency for secure, diversified, resilient and responsible supply.

The foresight studies, commissioned by the Department for Business & Trade, identified risks that could see bottlenecks in material supply due to limited UK-based supply chains, a reliance on international markets and growing global competition, all of which could have a detrimental impact on the economy.

The approach taken to quantify demand for specific technologies, while also providing a comprehensive overview across various decarbonisation technologies, is unique. This methodology enables the UK to make strategic decisions to enhance the security of the supply chains these technologies depend on.

Dr Evi Petavratzi, foresight study lead at CMIC.

Batteries have been identified as the decarbonisation technology that will see the fastest demand growth in the UK, which will have a knock-on-effect on the amount of materials, including graphite, nickel, lithium, cobalt and manganese, needed to meet this demand. Heat pumps, traction motors and wind turbines will drive demand for copper and rare earth elements (REEs). UK demand for REEs is expected to peak around 2030, before stabilising at approximately 5 per cent of current global supply by 2040, which underscores the critical need for new supply streams to be operational by 2030.

The can be found on the CMIC website, as can the UK Critical Minerals Assessment, which was released in November 2024.

Hosted by BGS and supported by the Department for Business & Trade (DBT), the UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre (CMIC) delivers authoritative, impartial and independent, up-to-date data, information and analysis about critical minerals for the UK’s economy.

CMIC second conference, which took place on Wednesday 26 February 2025, showcased and provided the opportunity to discuss the research and analysis that CMIC has delivered. The 2025 UK was one of the main topics of the event. The report builds on robust, CMIC-developed methodology and was released at the end of 2024. Thirty-four minerals are classified as critical, providing foundations for future UK policy and investment, as well as for foresight studies highlighting vulnerabilities in the supply chains of minerals critical to the growth of decarbonisation technologies in the UK to 2050.

Dr Karen Hanghøj, BGS Director, opened the conference by providing an overview of current supply risks for critical minerals and the role BGS and its wider minerals research can play.

The supply of minerals is essential to our economy and society and security of supply has never been more important. The work of CMIC and the wider BGS is important in addressing many of the challenges that we currently face. Through our role hosting CMIC, we continue to build on and expand our legacy expertise and provide impartial knowledge, data and research to Government and industry.

Dr Karen Hanghøj, BGS Director.

Sarah Jones MP, Minister of State for Industry at DBT, then provided a virtual address, acknowledging the substantial increase in the supply of critical minerals required to meet the growing demand.

This second CMIC conference is a great opportunity to reflect on the research released since the first conference in 2023. Both criticality assessments and foresight studies play important roles in understanding supply risk and in advising industry and Government. We understand which minerals are critical and, looking ahead, evaluate to what extent the UK can meet the demand needed for economic growth, decarbonisation and national security.

Dr Gavin Mudd, CMIC Director.

Dr Pierre Josso, deputy director at CMIC, presented key findings from the UK 2024 criticality assessment. Dr Evi Petavratzi, senior mineral commodity expert at BGS, looked ahead to the UK future as she spoke about the outcomes of the CMIC foresight studies. The foresight studies estimate which materials will be required by decarbonisation technologies to meet the UK net zero goals and highlight the challenges faced in meeting demand. An expert panel discussion around foresight studies capped the morning agenda.

In the afternoon there were two expert panels: the first discussed the UK critical minerals strategy and policy, whilst the second discussed the future of CMIC. Simon Thompson, BGS Board member, then brought the conference to a close, reinforcing the great value that CMIC research work brings to the UK Government and policymaking around critical minerals.

The is out.

Commissioned by the Department for Business and Trade (DBT) ahead of the launch of their new Critical Minerals Strategy in 2025, the report is intended to evaluate the risk of disruption to the supply of minerals of key economic importance.

The outcome may not be one that everyone expected. It may even raise some eyebrows, as such assessments have done elsewhere in the world, and it will hopefully spark further scientific and policy discussion. I certainly hope it does.

Across the world, industry groups and active lobbies have championed the introduction of a particular material to such criticality lists, perceiving perhaps the ‘critical’ designation as a mark of prestige or privilege within an economy. Some have called on scientists to change their findings, to varying levels of success.

Our assessment identifies copper as not critical. This will likely, and understandably, be the focus of much attention — much as its omission in the 2023 USA assessment was. In similar lists focused on economies across the EU, Japan, India, China, Canada and now the USA, copper is identified as critical. Under the methodology within our report, the material did not meet the necessary threshold, as with Australia latest assessment.

This is why it is important to understand the difference in definition between ‘essential’, ‘important’ and ‘critical’. The commodities evaluated as part of this assessment were selected precisely because of their significant importance to the UK economy, but for a mineral to be ‘critical’ it must be both important and subject to a significant supply risk.

The UK is reliant on international supply for most of the 82 assessed materials at the heart of this report, with 49 of them predominately provided through imports. The competition for certain minerals is increasing by the day: for example, global demand for lithium is expected to increase more than tenfold by 2050 to support the net zero energy transition.

This assessment is built on robust data. It is a snapshot of the UK present need, our current supply chains, and demand drive estimated by consumption and existing policy. This is a steadfast, impartial and empirical point from which decision makers can progress conversations around our future needs. 

I see criticality as an ever-changing status in response to conditions. The ebb and flow of technological advancements, consumer demand, market forces, the drive for renewable energy sources and the geopolitical environment: all play a role in shaping demand and increasing the risks around supply.

Copper is an important and essential mineral to the UK economy. It has diversified uses, including power and electricity, telecommunications and digital technologies, as well as chemicals and infrastructure. Every home, office, factory and vehicle across the UK draws value from the use of copper every day. However, the 2024 UK Criticality Assessment aims to identify the minerals for which the UK economy is currently most vulnerable. In simple terms, this means those minerals that have a higher risk of supply disruption and could prompt significant economic upheaval for the UK should a disruption occur.

Against that measure, based on the scientific data used in our report, copper is not critical. Through available data, projections of refined copper production can be judged likely to meet copper demand for the relevant policies and announced pledges scenarios.

This assessment recognises that concerns around the capacity to increase global copper mine supply may lead to an increased global supply risk and, in turn, result in copper becoming critical in the future. When the data shows this point is reached, such assessments will reflect it. The dynamic nature of criticality also mean we need other types of assessments and studies, for example forecasting studies for certain minerals, and CMIC is already planning several of these.

This report lives and dies by its adherence to a methodology that is impartial. In my eyes, it is a good thing that there appears a conscious effort to meet the global demand for copper. This is an indication that the global supply chain currently produces this essential material with a sound balance between supply and demand. With the UK seeking to enhance the National Grid to accommodate a higher proportion of renewable energy and electric vehicle charging capability, this country is clearly going to need a lot of it. 

To meet global net zero greenhouse gas emission targets by 2050, we will need to increase copper mine supply by about 2 per cent above existing trends. Whilst this does not sound like much, it is recognised that there are challenges faced by the copper sector such as declining ore grades, water resources issues (for example, scarcity), and the increasing difficulty of developing large new copper projects.

This assessment is intended to stimulate discussion and allow us as a country to continue to plan effectively for the future of our economy and its place within an increasingly sophisticated and interconnected global supply chain. That discussion should be vigorous and impassioned; disagreement is an inevitable outcome. I look forward to taking part in such conversations.

I would invite all to see real success in terms of what the next criticality assessment might contain. A shorter list will be a clear indication that the UK has been successful in mitigating supply risk.

The latest UK Criticality Assessment, , focuses on the vulnerability to supply disruption of minerals in an increasingly diversified UK economy. The analysis is intended to support policymakers in building economic resilience and securing minerals of importance to the UK economy and national security.

Critical minerals are essential in a wide range of products we rely on for our energy, transportation, home and work lives, defence and health care. The assessment was commissioned by the Department for Business and Trade (DBT) as part of the CMIC programme for 2024.

Criticality assessments are similar to risk assessments in that they aim to produce an evaluation of the potential for the disruption of the supply of minerals and the resulting economic impact. Indicators are quantified from a range of relevant metrics derived from reliable and publicly available data. Through this methodology, the assessment provides insights on the various factors that contribute to supply risk.

The assessment builds on data used in a range of areas, including:

• diplomatic efforts to secure stable trade relationships
• supporting improved recycling capabilities as part of a more circular economy
• further investment in exploration, mining and processing
• the pursuit of alternative materials

Dr Gavin Mudd, director of the Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre, said that the assessment demonstrates the increasingly complex supply chains the UK relies on to support its economic activity.

This assessment confirms that the growing diversification of the UK economy — alongside the expanding reliance on global trade — brings an increasing vulnerability in terms of disruption to the supply of critical minerals.

There are similarities to other criticality assessment lists across the world, but the demands and challenges facing the UK economy are dynamic and we need to match the demand for minerals with sustainable and reliable supply.

Dr Gavin Mudd, CMIC Director.

I welcome the Critical Mineral Intelligence Centre assessment, which shows a sustainable supply of critical minerals will be more vital than ever.

That why next year we’ll launch a new Critical Minerals Strategy to help secure our supply chains for the long term and drive forward the green industries of the future.

Sarah Jones MP, Industry Minister.

UK Criticality Assessment 2024: 10 most critical minerals

The finds that 34 minerals out of the 82 candidate materials assessed are ‘critical’. This is an increase relative to the 2021 assessment, where only 26 candidate materials were assessed and 18 assessed as critical.

Of the 18 minerals classed as critical on the 2021 list, 17 remain critical in this new assessment — palladium is now below the criticality threshold — whilst notable additions in 2024 include nickel, iron, germanium, aluminium and chromium (plus others). The new list reflects the increased scope of assessment and the advances in the methodology used.

Dr Gavin Mudd, the director of CMIC, says the study has highlighted the diverse UK economy, driven by clean energy technology like wind turbines and electric vehicles and an increase in advanced manufacturing applications.

In particular, as the UK continues its efforts in decarbonisation of its economy, we are seeing significant shifts in numerous minerals as coal-fired power has now been closed and new technologies are being used. This brings both benefits and risks to the UK.

Dr Gavin Mudd, CMIC Director.

The report highlights several issues that should be the focus of further consideration.

Technology-driven mineral demand

The pursuit of new energy and transport technologies lies at the heart of decarbonisation efforts and is creating significant demand for additional critical minerals. These include the use of lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles or rare earth elements used in the permanent magnets in drive trains for electric vehicles and wind turbines. Other sectors fueling technical advances through the use of critical minerals includes aerospace and defence, which require specialist alloys that can withstand extreme conditions, whilst the rise in the use of artificial intelligence and the linked demand on large data centres has also prompted a considerable increase in the demand for minerals with a high criticality score within the assessment.

Decarbonisation effects on mineral demand

With an intrinsic link between climate change and the extraction of minerals, the drive to achieve net zero commitments and the transition towards a low-carbon society, reducing our carbon emissions and our dependence on fossil fuels will require a greater global supply of minerals. It is recognised that the manufacture of technologies such as wind turbines and electric vehicles is a mineral-intensive process and, as such, the mineral demand for these clean energy technologies is anticipated to increase significantly. Some estimates suggest a quadrupling of demand by 2040 in a scenario in which net zero carbon emissions are achieved by 2050. Clean energy technologies are the predominant driver of growth in demand for many critical minerals.

Trade regulations and global supply risks

Trade regulations can significantly disrupt global critical mineral supply chains and trade, therefore carrying the potential to cause shortages and price volatility. The extent of any disruption on the supply of critical minerals would depend on the nature of the regulations, their timing and the duration of their application. As the UK economy is demonstrably more vulnerable to disruption in the flow of key materials from international markets, it is also more vulnerable to the effects of global trade measures and regulations. Furthermore, the UK critical minerals refining and manufacturing capacity being in its nascent stages potentially heightens this vulnerability.

Recycling potential

The ability to employ recycling as a means to bolster supply for the candidate materials assessed in this study varies significantly, ranging from zero to a maximum of 95 per cent. The UK imports and exports waste and scrap flows for a range of materials, derived from related processing and manufacturing activities. Overall, the area of recycling needs a greater capacity to synthesise data, monitor material flows through the economy and explore opportunities to improve the circularity of the UK economy.

Climate change and its impact on global supply risks

Climate change poses significant risks to the global supply of critical metals and minerals needed for clean energy technologies and the transition to a low-carbon economy. At present, it is causing more frequent extreme weather events than ever before, such as drought, heat, flooding and changing precipitation patterns. All these events have a direct impact on mining operations and minerals processing and transportation. Climate change risks could potentially impede the trajectory of clean energy transitions if the supply of critical metals cannot meet rapidly growing demand, and may have a significant impact on the economy’s ability to implement low-carbon technologies like solar panels, wind turbines and electric vehicle batteries.

The full UK 2024 criticality assessment is available to download through the CMIC website.

Following the first data release in July 2023, which captured reports from Scotland and the north of England, the (CMIC) has completed scanning all the that are held at BGS. This release includes Wales and the south-west of England.

What is MEIGA?

MEIGA was funded under the former Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) through grants for mineral exploration of non-ferrous metals, fluorspar, barium and potash. CMIC is delivering the MEIGA reports in a geographically searchable, online and free-to-access format, making the data accessible for exploration companies to use to help refine areas that could be of interest to them.

The MEIGA reports contain:

• geological mapping
• soil and stream sediment geochemistry data
• geophysical surveys
• drill core logs
• assay data

We are delighted to have this final part of the dataset released publicly, as we believe pre-competitive data is an essential part of the exploration geologist toolkit that can help identify prospective areas for further exploration.

Eimear Deady, BGS Economic Geologist.

What information does the new release contain?

The south-west of England and parts of Wales were identified as areas of interest in a recent report on critical raw material (CRM) prospectivity in the UK (Deady et al., 2023). Many CRMs are the co- and byproducts of base metals and other metals previously explored for and mined across Wales and south-west England.

For example, areas of Wales covered by MEIGA reports may have the potential for CRMs associated with a deposit type known as volcanogenic massive sulfides. These are typically mined for copper but have the potential to also contain CRMs such as indium, tellurium or bismuth. Other deposits in Wales include historic gold deposits, which could contain other CRMs such as tellurium, bismuth or antimony but have not been evaluated using modern analytical methods.

CMIC works closely with the , which funds CMIC, and this data supports the UK Government Critical Minerals Strategy by providing accessible historical information to companies wishing to explore the UK critical mineral potential.

More information

• on the CMIC website
• Find out more about the previous release of reports
• Geological material collected in the 1970s and 1980s is available via BGS through the Core Store booking process and the , where anyone can explore the MEIGA report areas

Critical minerals are a group of natural resources that are essential to modern society and increasingly in demand for their use in a wide range of industries, including electronics, renewable energy and transportation. They are considered ‘critical’ because despite their economic and technological importance they are in limited supply for varied technological and economic reasons, often produced in small quantities with supply possibly concentrated in few countries, which can lead to supply chain vulnerabilities and geopolitical tensions. In most cases, the issue of critical raw materials is not geological abundance but geopolitical and economical. 

The issue of critical minerals 

Critical minerals are an issue that has moved up the political agenda in recent years. In 2022, the UK produced its Critical Minerals Strategy, which sets out how the UK will go about securing its supply of critical minerals. The strategy contains three main aims:   

• accelerate the growth of UK capabilities in the procurement, use and circular economy of critical minerals  
• collaborate with international partners  
• enhance international markets  

The Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre (CMIC), which is hosted by BGS, was established to support the realisation of this strategy. CMIC works with universities as well as private and public sector partners to gather and analyse intelligence on the supply and demand of critical minerals, their global value chains and their use by UK industry.  

Research and innovation will play a key role in dealing with the issues raised by critical minerals. This includes, for example, research into and development of:   

• novel physical or chemical extraction and processing techniques, to create new sources of primary raw materials and improve the economic performance of current deposits  
• novel recycling and processing techniques, to establish new sources of secondary materials and reduce the reliance on imported primary materials  
• material synthesis, product design and manufacturing methods, to reduce the reliance on critical minerals and allow diversification  
• technologies for tracking carbon emissions and material stocks and flows, to improve supply chain transparency and integrity  
• environmental sustainability assessment methodologies, to allow financial institutions to have greater confidence in the impacts of their investments  

To understand how best to deploy present and future research and development resources against critical mineral challenges, we need to understand the current situation and how it relates to critical minerals.  

The research review 

The critical minerals research review documented large research projects and programmes (from 2017 onwards) that are relevant to the eighteen raw materials designated as ‘critical’, plus another five on a ‘watchlist’. It also reviewed relevant research institutes and centres, public and industry bodies, and learned societies. The projects and programmes were categorised in terms of technology application, research area and industry sector, then analysed to generate some key statistics and insights.  

In total, the review detailed £1.45 billion of funding. Of this, £0.9 billion was delivered through 51ÁÔÆæ challenge programmes (for example, Faraday; Driving the Electric Revolution (DER); Transforming Foundation Industries; Medicine Manufacturing Challenge), which are largely business-led initiatives in the natural sciences.  

Academic-led investments (approximately £0.4 billion) both complemented the 51ÁÔÆæ challenge programme priorities (Faraday Institute; DER industrialisation centres) and targeted adjacent priority areas set by other research councils ( (EPSRC); (BBSRC); (NERC), etc.). These priority areas include: 

• catalysis, exploration and extraction research 
• fundamental advanced materials research and development 
• green chemistry 
• sustainability  
• circular economy 

Only £153 million of projects in the dataset specifically addressed underlying issues of criticality or were directly relevant to particular elements or minerals. Of the directly relevant funding, the top three elements and minerals targeted are:  

• silicon (around £35 million) 
• lithium (around £25 million)  
• rare earth elements or REEs (around £25 millions) 

Most of the funding for research into REEs has come very recently from the Circular Critical Materials Supply Chain (CLIMATES) programme from . Whilst it should be no surprise to see a battery element (lithium) and the set of metals needed to make high-performance permanent magnets (REEs) in the top three, in general there is a poor correlation between the recent, targeted investment and the criticality score given in the UK Critical Minerals Strategy. In other words, there are minerals deemed to be critical that have historically received little attention or research and development investment.  

Funding relevant to critical minerals is generally delivered by multiple research councils and government departments, including:  

• Innovate UK 
• EPSRC 
• BBSRC 
• NERC 
• (ESRC) 
• (DBT)  
•  

This distributed approach may be diluting the impact of funded research and providing a complicated funding landscape for researchers and businesses to navigate.  

Outcomes and next steps 

It is clear from the review that the UK has significant strengths in multiple research areas relevant to critical minerals, including:  

• exploration and extraction 
• materials science 
• (bio)chemical engineering 
• advanced manufacturing 
• supply chain digitalisation  
• environmental, social and governance (ESG)-compliant financing 

However, significant future investment is required on a multidisciplinary basis, to address major challenges around security of supply of critical minerals for the UK economy. Building on previous investments, these new investments should aim to develop appropriate criticality mitigation strategies to increase UK resilience across critical mineral value chains relevant to multiple applications.   

To provide interdisciplinary solutions that can be easily translated into impact for decision makers in government and industry, integrated research and innovation is needed across three key areas:  

• responsible acquisition and processing of raw materials  
• building resilient, secure and productive supply chains 
• identifying alternative materials, manufacturing technologies and business models to achieve a circular economy 

Critical minerals will become increasingly important over the coming decades as we deploy renewable energy and sustainable transportation and reduce our reliance on fossil fuels. Investing in critical minerals research and development will contribute to the successful implementation of these changes and allow the UK to lead in the creation of the future green economy.  

About the author

Matthew Reeves, Innovate UK

Led by BGS with support from the Department for Business and Trade (DBT), the Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre (CMIC) helps the UK to secure adequate, timely and sustainable supplies of the minerals and metals it requires to transition its economy to net zero emissions in the coming decades.

The conference set out the context and objectives of CMIC, the research and analyses it carries out, both in-house and commissioned from other bodies, and its engagement with UK Government and industry.

To open the conference, Nursrat Ghani MP, Minister of State at the Department for Business and Trade (DBT), provided a virtual opening address on the importance of critical minerals to the UK, highlighting that the country is committed to securing the supply of critical minerals. BGS Director Dr Karen Hanghøj then addressed the conference to talk about the role of BGS and its wider minerals research.

In hosting CMIC, BGS is able to build on its extensive expertise and knowledge, considerable international experience and ability to work with a broad range of research partners to give impartial advice to both Government and industry on reducing the risk of disruption to our critical mineral supply chains.

Dr Karen Hanghøj, BGS Director.

A number of other speakers also took to the floor at the conference, including Andrew Bloodworth, the interim CMIC Director, who took an in-depth look at the objectives, research, analysis and overview of the second year of the work programme.

At a time when the global economy is moving towards net zero and when geopolitical tensions have grown significantly, the information and insight provided by CMIC on possible risks associated with the UK critical mineral supply are important for informing decisions relating to our economic growth and national security.

Andrew Bloodworth, interim CMIC Director.

Dr Pierre Josso, deputy director at CMIC, then spoke about the updated methodology and the timescales for the next criticality assessment. There was also an expert panel discussion on the future direction of CMIC that featured:

• Karen Hanghøj, BGS Director
• Matt Hatfield, head of policy of critical minerals, Department of Business and Trade
• Emma Schofield, platinum group metals research fellow at Johnson Matthey
• Simon Thompson, BGS Board member

The panel discussed:

• future supply and demand for critical minerals
• long lead times for mining projects
• the role of CMIC in helping investors understand risk
• the likely nature of a more circular economy for critical minerals

In addition to providing an opportunity for the delegates to comment and ask questions, the panel also highlighted the future priorities for CMIC, including focusing on UK manufacturing and a thorough analysis of supply chains.

Following the panel, there were closing reflections from Prof Julia Sutcliffe, Chief Scientific Advisor at DBT, who reinforced the Government commitment to securing the supply of critical minerals and the role that CMIC‘s strategy has played in getting us where we are today.